Changes in the US population by state between 2010 and 2020 (click to enlarge). – US Cense
There were officially 331 million inhabitants in the United States on April 1, 2020. Monday, the first figures of the census, which is carried out once every ten years, were announced. Unsurprisingly, population growth has slowed markedly over the past decade, between a drop in the birth rate and the halt to immigration decided by Donald Trump. But not all states are in the same boat, and this has an impact on the American electoral map.
The United States had exactly 331,449,281 inhabitants on April 1, 2020, 7.4% more than in 2010, said the Census Bureau. This increase is significantly less than the + 9.7% recorded during the previous decade and barely higher than the lowest ever recorded: + 7.3% between 1930 and 1940, the period of the Great Depression.
Texas big winner
Cost of living, fiscal attractiveness, employment, climate… Many factors come into play in migratory flows. About ten states have experienced population growth of between 12 and 18%: Texas, Utah, Florida, Nevada, Washington, Idaho, North Dakota, Colorado and Arizona. Conversely, the number of inhabitants in the Midwest is stagnating (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota) or decreasing (West Virginia, Illinois). California (6.1%) and especially New York (4.2%) do less well than the national average.
The number of seats in the Chamber (435), and of votes in the electoral college for the presidential election (538) remains fixed. But the amount allocated to each state depends on the percentage of the total population. As a result, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana and Oregon win one seat, and Texas two. Conversely, seven states lose one, including California and New York. With this new electoral map, the presidential result would not have fundamentally changed, but Donald Trump would have won three more votes in the electoral college (303-235 for Biden instead of 306-232). Joe Biden would always have won largely.