On Monday evening, Putin prepared the Russians for war in a 60-minute angry speech. Then the separatist areas were recognized and “peacekeeping troops” were sent to eastern Ukraine. For the West it is clear: With this step Russia has violated international law and violated the sovereignty of Ukraine.
“Ukraine has been at war for more than six or seven years,” says SZ political chief Stefan Kornelius. Shots are being fired every day in the Donbass, and the ceasefire agreements are not being held. Although an escalation is currently being experienced, he does not see any danger that this regional conflict could grow into a major war. “Putin is a rational actor to the extent that he knows he wouldn’t dare extend the conflict beyond Ukraine.” Instead, his message is: “Stay out of Ukraine or we want to get control of Ukraine.” Even sanctions would not really bother him. “He made himself immune to it.”
The scenarios outlined by Stefan Kornelius can be found here.
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