Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani and an outlaw leading the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has transformed into Syria’s transitional president after a rapid victory over the Assad regime. As regional dynamics shift, Sharaa faces challenges in uniting a fragmented nation, managing tensions with Kurdish forces, and navigating the interests of key players like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia. His leadership will be crucial in determining Syria’s stability and future.
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Transformation: From Outlaw to President
A few months back, Ahmed al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, was labeled an outlaw. As the head of the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), he found himself isolated in the rebel-held enclave of Idlib, enduring artillery fire from Bashar al-Assad’s forces and airstrikes from Russia, all while being listed on the American terror watchlist.
Fast forward to today, and Sharaa has traded his combat attire for a business suit, emerging as a prominent figure across the Middle East after being named the transitional president of Syria. His militia’s swift actions in December effectively dismantled the long-standing Assad regime in a matter of days. Now, he is embarking on a significant tour of the region, garnering attention and support wherever he goes.
The Power Dynamics in a Changing Syria
Syria’s neighbors are keen on preventing the nation from spiraling back into chaos. For nearly two decades, Syria, once a regional powerhouse under dictator Hafiz al-Assad, has been a chess piece in the hands of foreign powers. The tumult began in 2011 with a failed uprising against Bashar al-Assad, leading to a devastating civil war that drew in Turkey, the U.S., Israel, Iran, Gulf states, and Russia.
Now, with the rebels’ unexpected victory in late 2024, Syria has regained a pivotal role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The stability of Syria is crucial—it could either pave the way for long-term peace or plunge the region into further conflict.
Presently, the threat of instability appears minimal, as regional powers seem invested in maintaining a united Syria. Turkey, a key player, has been supportive of Sharaa since before his rise to the presidency, reportedly offering military bases in exchange for cooperation.
Furthermore, the situation for the Kurdish forces in eastern Syria has become precarious, with Turkish-backed troops advancing against them. The newly appointed president, Sharaa, faces pressure to disarm the Kurds, which reflects the complex interplay of interests in the region.
While Turkey and the Gulf states appear to be gaining influence, Iran and Russia find themselves on the losing end. Turkey, however, cannot stabilize Syria alone; it requires the backing of Gulf nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, which possesses the financial resources essential for rebuilding the war-torn economy. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Turkey has evolved from rivalry to cooperation, as both seek stability to further their own national interests.
Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, is ready to invest in Syria, aiming to foster peace and stability as part of his vision to transition the kingdom from an oil-dependent economy to a diversified one. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates also play roles in supporting Sharaa, though the latter remains cautious due to its anti-Islamist stance.
As the dust settles in Damascus, Iran finds itself in a challenging position. Having watched the collapse of its ally Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah, Tehran is now attempting to navigate the new landscape while claiming to have no issues with Sharaa’s leadership. However, there are signs that Iran may still support dissidents against the new president, which raises questions about its ability to influence events in Syria.
Russia, too, is adjusting to this new reality, focusing on maintaining its military presence in Syrian ports while leveraging its ties with the ousted Assad as a bargaining tool. However, Sharaa faces significant challenges ahead, especially with Western sanctions still in place and ongoing tensions with Israel, which remains a threat to his governance.
While the prospect of sanctions being lifted brings some hope for economic recovery, Sharaa must also contend with the presence of U.S. troops in eastern Syria and the unpredictable nature of American politics under Donald Trump.
Looking to the future, Sharaa’s leadership will largely depend on his domestic standing and ability to establish control over a fragmented country. Various militias still hold sway across Syria, with Turkish-backed forces in the north, armed Druze in the south, and Kurdish factions in the east.
Ensuring security is paramount for Sharaa, as acts of revenge from loyalists of the former regime and the threat of radical jihadists could undermine his authority. Additionally, remnants of the Islamic State linger in the Syrian desert, poised to exploit any signs of weakness.
In conclusion, Ahmed al-Sharaa’s journey from an outlaw to the president of Syria is a remarkable transformation, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges that will test his leadership and the stability of the region.