Survey for the state elections in Bavaria: CSU with more than 40 percent – Bavaria

The Bavarian Greens are losing approval, according to a representative survey things are going uphill for the CSU and Free Voters: If there were state elections in Bavaria on Sunday, the CSU around Prime Minister Markus Söder would get 41 percent of the votes. That is two percentage points more than in the previous month, according to an investigation by the opinion research institute Civey on behalf of the Augsburg General revealed. A year ago, the CSU was still 33 percent. Ten percent would vote for the coalition partner, the Free Voters – so the incumbent government would still have a majority.

The Greens, on the other hand, would have to cope with significant losses, according to the survey. In October they came to 21 percent, now it’s only 17 percent. The next places are followed by the SPD and AfD, who are tied with the Free Voters at ten percent. FDP (three percent) and Left (two) would not be represented in the state parliament – they would fail at the five percent hurdle.

In principle, election polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a forecast of the outcome of the election. They are always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it difficult for the opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. Last week, the Bavarian cabinet proposed October 8, 2023 as the date for the next state election in Bavaria.

According to a representative survey by the Insa institute on behalf of the picture-Zeitung is currently a relative majority of Union supporters for Söder as a candidate for chancellor: 38 percent of Union voters were in favor of Söder, 31 percent for CDU leader Friedrich Merz, it said. All respondents answered the question “Which politician do you think should be candidate for chancellor of the CDU/CSU in the next federal election?” 27 percent said they would not want any of the politicians mentioned as chancellor candidates.

Among those named, Söder ended up with 22 percent ahead of Merz (13 percent) and the prime ministers of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein, Hendrik Wüst (8 percent) and Daniel Günther (6 percent).

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