Surprise advance in Luhansk
US experts expect Kremlin major offensive
01/26/2023 at 6:37 p.m
In order to make up for the military defeat in the fall, Russia could prepare a “decisive effort” in Luhansk. Washington military experts see signs that the Kremlin wants to surprise Ukraine with this offensive.
According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), Russia’s strategic deployment of various armed forces points to a major offensive in the Luhansk region in the near future. The presence of conventional forces along the front there, as well as the fact that only limited attacks are taking place on fronts in other areas, suggest that Russian forces are preparing for a “decisive effort” in Luhansk, the Washington-based think tank said in its recent report.
A number of intelligence statements support this assessment. The isolated attacks elsewhere served to distract and disperse the Ukrainian forces. The US institute described an attack along the axis between the towns of Swatowe and Kreminna as the most likely course of the Russian offensive. This attack was therefore supposed to advance through the major logistics centers of the cities of Luhansk and Starobilsk to the border of the administrative region, where it would eventually conquer the parts of the oblast that are still under Ukrainian control.
Greater ground gains unlikely
Russia may be hoping to launch further attacks into the Kharkiv region from the Swatove-Kreminna line and recapture critical terrain north of Donetsk. “However, it is extremely unlikely that Russian forces will be able to gain significant ground on this axis, even if they launch a successful attack in this sector,” the think-tank report continued.
However, an attack on this line should not come as a great surprise to the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian military announced on Tuesday that they had indications that Russian troops were regrouping and regrouping for a major offensive in Luhansk and Donetsk. However, the security expert Nico Lange doubted a short-term major offensive at ntv. After months of attrition over Bachmut, both sides had no strength for it, despite the favorable weather conditions.