Most people prefer temperate temperatures to live. However, due to global warming, these so-called climate niches are becoming smaller – by the end of the century, a third of all people could live in regions with very high temperatures.
According to a study, around a third of all people could live outside the so-called climate niche and thus in climatically difficult regions by the end of the century. With a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees on earth, as is to be expected with the current climate policy, the number of people affected would be of this magnitude, according to a report on the consequences of climate change, published in the specialist journal “Nature Sustainability” was published. If global warming were limited to 1.5 degrees, it would only be 14 percent.
Sahel zone particularly affected
According to this, the temperature range in which people prefer to settle due to favorable climatic conditions is considered a climatic niche. According to the information, the optimum annual mean temperature for this niche is around eleven to 15 degrees Celsius. More than 600 million people, more than nine percent of the world’s population, are currently living outside the climate niche. With the climate crisis, however, the areas that are still among the climatically favorable regions also changed.
According to the study by climate researchers Timothy M. Lenton and Chi Xu, people in India, Nigeria and Indonesia would be affected. Particularly large areas of a country would be affected in Burkina Faso, Mali and Qatar, which would be almost completely outside the climate niche.
Adjustment only possible to a limited extent
The problem with this is that the people in these regions can only adapt to such extreme temperatures to a limited extent. In principle, this is possible, says Christian Franzke, a climate physicist at the University of Pusan in South Korea. “But that will cost money that poor countries and poor people don’t have. For example, not everyone can afford air conditioning,” he tells the science portal Science Media Center (SMC). In addition, in many developing countries, most of the work takes place outdoors, for example in the fields.
The Stockholm climate researcher Richard JT Klein pointed out that in addition to temperatures, other factors are important for a decent life – such as water, humidity and living conditions of the animals kept for food and the plants grown. “What this study shows very well is the direct human suffering that climate change could cause,” he said. “Life outside the niche means suffering due to an unbearably hot and possibly humid climate.”
influence on migration
Even if the time in the study is far in the future, it is important to act soon, warned the development geographer Lisa Schipper from Bonn. “The idea that fewer and fewer people will be able to lead a decent life is directly related to the IPCC’s warning that the window of opportunity for ensuring a sustainable and worthwhile life for all people is closing. Even with 1.5 degrees warming, this is probably not possible.”
In addition, the developments are likely to influence migration in the affected regions. “These are places where a decent life seems almost impossible, and it is likely that these people – if they have the means – will try to resettle,” Schipper also told the SMC.