State elections in Lower Austria: mood test for the ÖVP

In the elections in Austria’s largest federal state, Lower Austria, the ruling ÖVP is threatened with severe losses. Their chancellor, Nehammer, does not have a majority at the federal level. The state election is therefore considered a mood test.

When asked about the consequences of the election in Austria’s largest federal state, Lower Austria, Austria’s Chancellor Karl Nehammer became increasingly annoyed. His standard answer: “This is a state election campaign and not a federal election campaign”. Nevertheless, everyone is curious to see how many percentage points the Chancellor’s Party ÖVP will lose in Lower Austria. Ten? Or more?

How far does the ÖVP fall?

The ÖVP had a whopping 49.6 percent in the last state elections, enough for the absolute majority of seats in the state parliament, more than enough for a comfortable government majority. The prediction this time: 40 percent for the People’s Party, maybe less. “It’ll be tough the day after,” writes the largest tabloid, the “Kronen Zeitung”. Hart for Johanna Mikl-Leitner, called “MiLei”, “our governor”, as the ÖVP billboards large and nationwide.

Mikl-Leitner is the only woman in the office of Prime Minister in Austria. “Grande Dame” of the Austrian People’s Party in the ÖVP’s home country of Lower Austria, which has always been a kind of “principality” for the conservative Austrian People’s Party, with Mikl-Leitner and even more so with her predecessors.

The right-wing populists take off

“Storm on the stronghold” of the ÖVP was the headline in the newspaper “Der Standard” – that’s how the election campaign was charged, almost 1.3 million people are entitled to vote. The right-wing populist FPÖ has moved up to second place in the pre-election polls, around 25 percent trust it, significantly more than last time in 2018, when it was just under 15 percent. Only then does the SPÖ follow, stagnating at around 22 percent. Green and liberal NEOs in Lower Austria are stuck at around six percent.

Aftershocks of the “Era Kurz”

The headline on the evening of the election should again be: “ÖVP crashed – in first place”. Similar to last time in Tyrol, which was also an ÖVP “principality” for decades. Now the ÖVP governs there with the SPÖ as a partner. It is this trend towards Austria-wide landslides that is driving the governing party ÖVP.

Sebastian Kurz had once led the party to great heights – albeit using methods that led to investigations by the corruption prosecutor against him, causing the entire Alpine republic to be shaken by a political earthquake. With numerous aftershocks.

Does “rubble man” Nehammer get a problem?

“First place” in Lower Austria, Nehammer can only dream of that with a view of the whole of Austria. He grew up politically in the Lower Austrian People’s Party and then moved up to the Chancellery on Vienna’s Ballhausplatz as a “rubble man”.

For two years, his ÖVP-Green government has not had a majority in the polls, for a few weeks the right-wing populist FPÖ has been the strongest party in the polls with up to 28 percent in Austria, ahead of the SPÖ (around 25 percent) and the Chancellor’s party ÖVP three (around 22 percent). Green and Liberal NEOs are each around 10 percent.

Van der Bellen: No government mandate for Europe enemies

28 poll percent for the party that started the Ibiza corruption scandal? This inspires Herbert Kickl in particular, the federal chairman of the right-wing system crasher party FPÖ. Loudly he claims the chancellor’s office: “Who else should do it?” And he promptly catches the refusal of the newly sworn in Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen, who in his inaugural speech in Parliament, which was acclaimed by everyone – except the FPÖ – let it be known: A government order to a party that is decidedly anti-European, plus the Russian war of aggression If he doesn’t want to condemn Ukraine, he can’t reconcile that with the “best of his knowledge and belief” – as he swore in his oath of office.

Does the FPÖ benefit from the Van der Bellen attack?

It could be that the FPÖ does more good than harm. The election result for Lower Austria certainly offers room for interpretation. Acute danger for Chancellor Nehammer? Regular new elections will not take place in Austria until next year. Before that there are two more state elections, in Carinthia and in Salzburg.

ÖVP needs a scapegoat

As long as there is no election, Nehammer is safe as party leader and as federal chancellor, albeit for unflattering reasons.

The ÖVP needs a scapegoat for further bad results and, says the leading Austrian political expert Professor Peter Filzmaier ARD: “Because you don’t have anyone else in the ÖVP and because the office is very thankless, so – at least now – nobody wants the job”. And Filzmaier adds with a smile that a new “miracle wuzzi” is not in sight in the ÖVP at the moment.