analysis
As of: 07/06/2021 6:53 a.m.
Actually, the Thuringian state parliament is to be re-elected at the same time as the federal election. To do this, however, Parliament must dissolve prematurely. That is only possible with a two-thirds majority.
From Ulli Sondermann-Becker,
MDR
Originally the calculation sounded simple: 42 votes from the red-red-green minority coalition plus 21 from the CDU makes 63. That is three votes more than are necessary for a two-thirds majority in the Thuringian state parliament – the condition for the self-dissolution of the parliament as a prerequisite for new elections . In the confused days after the Kemmerich election, Red-Red-Green and the CDU had agreed to ask the Thuringians to vote ahead of time in order to end the difficult situation of the left-wing minority government with CDU tolerance. But then four CDU MPs announced resistance.
Suddenly a stomach ache
It’s about Michael Heym, Jörg Kellner, Maik Kowallek and Christine Tasch. They think: The state parliament has been elected for five years, the risk of a similarly difficult election result as in 2019 is far too great, the country on the whole is capable of governing. So why new elections? Not only the colleagues in the CDU rubbed their eyes. How can that be? Christian Democrats who want to leave a red prime minister in office? After all, CDU parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt constantly proclaims that red-red-green under Bodo Ramelow may not be in office one day longer than necessary. But the four stick to the no.
Better to have the sparrow in hand
The attempts to explain quickly become personal: All four are followers of ex-CDU frontman Mike Mohring, who failed in the 2019 state election – and the restlessness of the four is a sign that the killed Mohring is still casting a shadow in the party. There is talk of “Mike’s Fan Club”. And: Apart from Kowallek, Kellner, Heym and Tasch are heading towards retirement – the legislature until 2024 could therefore have been the last. Why campaign again? “The shirt is closer to them than the skirt,” it says, referring to three years of parliamentary payments that are currently on the brink.
Red-Red-Green and CDU play Black Peter
By the way, you cannot inquire with “the four” – mails are sent and there are no calls back. The fact that the FDP member of the state parliament Ute Bergner has meanwhile also declared that she is also in favor of new elections has not calmed the situation. The invoice “42 + 21-4 + 1 = enough!” do not want to accept the left, the SPD and the Greens and call the whole thing a problem for CDU parliamentary group leader Voigt. He no longer has his people under control. Voigt, on the other hand, forbids “tactical games” and assures that there will be the necessary majority for the dissolution of the state parliament.
Who expects what from early elections?
There has been talk of early elections in Thuringia since the AfD elected FDP man Thomas Kemmerich as Prime Minister on February 5, 2020 using a sham candidate. As is well known, Kemmerich initially accepted the election, only to step down shortly afterwards. At that time, the left would have gladly seized the opportunity and immediately re-elected, which the CDU prevented for fear of political death. The Thuringian Christian Democrats even let their federal chief Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer show up for it.
Because the red-red-green minority coalition relied on votes from the CDU for the election of the prime minister, Ramelow negotiated a deal with CDU man Voigt – the so-called stability pact: the CDU helps elect the left-wing head of government in the state parliament and works constructively on the state budget With. In return, Red-Red-Green gave the battered CDU a respite – the new elections should take place in April 2021 at the earliest. Due to Corona, the date was postponed to the day of the federal election.
Everything else is regulated by the Thuringian constitution
Anyone who wants to dissolve the state parliament has to overcome a high hurdle: at least two thirds of the 90 members of the parliament have to agree. In addition, deadlines apply: If the election is to take place on September 26, the state parliament must dissolve on July 19 at the latest. Red-Red-Green and the CDU have now applied for this jointly. The state parliament administration is currently still examining how voting will take place: openly or by roll call. A roll-call vote has the advantage that the voting behavior of each individual is noted in the minutes of the meeting – but this takes a few days.
Maybe there is chaos
But if there is an open vote, i.e. with a show of hands, chaotic scenes threaten. Two left-wing members of the state parliament want to refuse to vote if the 60 votes can only be obtained with the help of the AfD or FDP. Before making their own decision, the two would have to look around and count them – and then decide within a split second. But can that work? Incidentally, the AfD and FDP have not yet finally decided how they want to vote.
What if the resolution to dissolve does not come about?
If the resolution to dissolve is not passed on July 19, the Red-Red-Green will continue to rule as a minority coalition. But: “The stability pact ends with the beginning of the parliamentary summer break,” says CDU parliamentary group leader Voigt. So is Thuringia ungovernable after that? Voigt evades a little: his CDU is a responsible party. But the minority coalition shouldn’t believe that it can just muddle on like that.