State election: How the voters in Saarland migrated

Who gained voters from whom? Who benefited the most from other parties’ losses? To whom did parties lose former supporters? The interactive map of voter migration in the state elections in Saarland.

Notes on voter migration

The infratest dimap migration model estimates the extent of migration flows. The model takes survey results on current and previous voting decisions into account and estimates voter migration flows between the parties or “retention rates” for identical party elections. It also records changes in the composition of voters as a result of current and previous non-elections as well as changes of generation and location (first-time voters versus deceased voters or immigrant versus emigrant).

An electricity account is calculated for each party with the profits and losses between the parties, the interplay between voting participation and abstention and the change of generation or location. The assumptions about the size and voting behavior of the identified groups are based on representative election and population statistics, pre-election surveys, the exit poll and the official election results. The central results are the estimated balances for the exchange between the parties and with the non-voter camp.

For reasons of transparency, auxiliary estimates for the respective inflows and outflows as well as for those who have moved in and out are also published. In the voter migration, absolute numbers are used instead of percentages in order to better illustrate relations. The individual streams are rounded so that the marginal totals may differ from the official result.

The estimate of the migration flows changes several times during the election evening (intermediate results), because first the representative surveys and later the counting results and finally the result of the preliminary counting are included in the presented figures. After publication of the preliminary result, a final estimate will be made and published.