What are the origins of the war in Ukraine? Is Vladimir Putin the man to kill? How to stop the conflict? Are we also going to be attacked? The war in Ukraine is complex and raises many questions. Besides, you had a lot of them on Wednesday evening at the address of Cyrille Bret that 20 minutes received in live on instagram as an expert on European issues and on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. For those who missed the appointment, here is a summary.
A brief reminder of the origins of this conflict
First of all, there are very deep and affective sources of this war. Ukraine has been part of the Tsarist Empire and then the Soviet Empire for 400 years. “The Russian government considers that there is no specific autonomous Ukrainian people,” recalled the researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute. It is this aberration, according to Moscow, of an independent Ukraine from Russia that needs to be rectified. »
The second reason is diplomatic. Three months ago, Russia issued an ultimatum to the West asking for guarantees on the non-extension of NATO to Ukraine. “As the Americans and the Europeans did not give it, this was the fundamental and strategic reason for launching these military operations”, underlined Cyrille Bret.
To this, finally, was added a justification by the Russian president, namely the need to “denazify” the Ukrainian government and prevent a genocide. A “fanciful” reason, according to the professor at Science Po who recalled “that none of the independent international observers present in the Donbass pointed to a genocide on the part of the Ukrainian government against the Russian-speaking community”. The expert, however, concedes that there are many dead in this region at war for eight years: soldiers from both sides and civilians.
And international agreements in all this?
In this conflict, much has been said about the Minsk agreements, signed in the Belarusian city in 2014. This is the only ceasefire agreement between the government of Kiev and the separatists of Eastern Ukraine , which are at the same time guaranteed by Russia, by the Europeans and by the United States. Agreements, made of sorts of “barters”, detailed Cyrille Bret. “In exchange for a certain degree of political and administrative autonomy for this region, Russia promised to put pressure on the separatists to give up armed struggle. »
Other Size Agreement: the UN resolution signed on March 3 demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. “It has no impact on the pitch,” acknowledged Cyrille Bret. It is nonetheless important, because it “openly condemns Russia and makes the invasion illegal”. According to the expert, the repetition of UN condemnations will harm Russia in other organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) or the FAO (the Food and Agriculture Organization) .
Soon a Third Nuclear World War?
For the conflict to become global, the European Union and the United States would have to officially go to war against Russia. “This is not the case and that is why all precautions are taken on shipments of weapons to Ukraine,” said Cyrille Bret. However, the risk of an expansion of the conflict cannot be ruled out. “There is always a contagion effect in wars. According to him, the overflow could start in Moldova, south of Ukraine. A small country, with a small army, which belongs neither to NATO nor to the EU “and which has on its territory a separatist pocket quite comparable to that of Donbass”.
There are three risks of nuclear incidents in this war, according to Cyrille Bret. “First there is the risk of leaks or accidents in the power plants. There may then be a use of ballistic nuclear power which would strike major European capitals. But these two risks are not necessarily the most likely, according to the researcher. For him, Russia could on the other hand decide to use “small nuclear bombs” on the battlefields. A “tactical” use of nuclear weapons, which Moscow has never ruled out. Cyrille Bret admitted that we were right to be worried, because the nuclear threats hanging over Ukraine and the Europeans “are explicit”. “We are only at the beginning of the war, we have crossed the first milestones. There are many more before the application of this threat,” he stressed, however.
Vladimir Putin, the pivot of this whole war?
With his shocking statements and his “completely uninhibited use of all the levers of power”, the Russian president worries. “Speculation on the personality of Vladimir Putin, his isolation, his irrationality have their place, but it is not only a question of person”, for Cyrille Bret. Indeed, many Russians, who are not fanatics, consider that Ukraine is part of Russia and that NATO has nothing to do with Russia’s border. “Do not believe that it is a delirium of an isolated man. A large part of Russian opinion approves or at least understands why we have come to this. »
Can we stop this war?
“Economic asphyxiation is the bet that the Europeans are making by taking a series of absolutely extraordinary and historic sanctions against Russia”, assured our expert, recalling that these sanctions will be immediately lifted in the event of a halt to the conflict. Almost all commerce and trade with Russia is now banned by the major economic powers of the world. “It is the resistance, the determination and the solidarity of the Europeans between themselves and with the Ukrainians which can bring the Russian troops to stop their operations”, added Cyrille Bret.
But economic sanctions have their limits. “What makes me pessimistic is that when we launched a large-scale military operation on the scale of an entire country, we suffered the worst economic, diplomatic, symbolic, sporting, cultural sanctions we have ever had. heard about since the end of the cold war, we want to go all the way. If tanks are not stopped with sanctions, it is therefore “the resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces and civil society which are the first ramparts against Russian military operations”.