The state government wants to abandon the incidence value as a guideline for its corona policy, it is preparing a new system for the rules. “Due to the high vaccination rate, the methodology of the first three waves, ie to concentrate only on the incidence, is no longer suitable,” said Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) at the weekend according to a newspaper report. Instead, he thinks of “a kind of hospital traffic light” that shows, for example, the utilization of the intensive care units, defines red lines and could thus become a new standard for measures.
Söder wants to propose this structural U-turn to his Council of Ministers soon, details are still to be clarified. The schedule has not yet been set either. In political Munich, however, it is known that the Prime Minister will schedule meetings of the cabinet, especially as a video switch, at short notice if necessary. In addition, instead of a meeting, there would be the option of a “circulation procedure” between the ministries; In this way, the Bavarian ordinance has just been adapted to the most recent resolutions of the Prime Minister’s Conference. Perhaps something is already happening on the issue of incidence in the course of this week.
From a “new chapter”, the balance between “security and personal responsibility”, Söder had in Munich Mercury spoken. It is important to keep an eye on the burden on the health system in the future. The hospital traffic light could “mirror” the situation in intensive care units.
According to information from the SZ, discussions that have started within the state government are now about the standard of interpretation. The absolute numbers of hospital occupancy or ventilation cases, also broken down by region or age group, are known per se. Söder has this and other corona data presented daily. The traffic light is about how these numbers are to be classified with a view to political action – i.e. a definition of when the situation is considered critical, still manageable or relaxed.
“Is the old 50 still the new 50?” Söder asked before the holidays
Nevertheless, Söder’s idea is not entirely surprising. At the last cabinet before the summer holidays, he announced that, given the progress in vaccination, other standards were necessary than the rigid incidence value: “Is the old 50 still the new 50?”, He said at the time. Nevertheless, the incidence is still needed as an early warning system or for special considerations, for example about the infection rate among adolescents. Health Minister Klaus Holetschek (CSU) recently pointed this out.
Since there was no agreement for a new methodology at the Prime Minister’s Conference, “we are developing it ourselves in Bavaria,” said Söder. In addition, the Free State wants to adopt the Baden-Württemberg model. According to this, previous openings are retained regardless of the incidence, but the 3-G rule for indoor areas applies across the board – only people who have been vaccinated, recovered or tested have access to restaurants, fitness studios or the hairdresser. Söder also sees this as an “incentive to vaccinate”, at the same time the model offers “more normality”.
He ruled out a new lockdown, as this would not be expected of vaccinated and convalescent people. He hoped “that we will not get into the situation at all because of the progress in vaccination”. Bavaria is not considering a 2-G rule (access for vaccinated and convalescent people, not for those who have been tested). If organizers implement this in this way, there is no countermeasure.
A relief for the vaccinated, more pressure for the unvaccinated
A new regulation without incidence as a fixed point and with the 3-G rule as the standard would be a relaxation or simplification – if the pandemic was quieter, the annoying back and forth would be eliminated; and vaccinated people are always on the safe side, so to speak. On the other hand, that would be a tightening: The pressure on non-vaccinated people would increase, especially when the tests are mostly no longer free in October.
The nationwide 3G system is also a stricter line: even if the incidence, which is no longer relevant, were low or even close to zero in a region, proof of vaccination, recovery or test will probably apply for indoor areas. This is the case in Baden-Württemberg, Söder’s role model in this question.
The coalition partner, the Free Voters, praised the move. They have long called for the incidence value to be abolished or supplemented. This is one of the reasons why there was often a dispute with the CSU. Fabian Mehring, parliamentary manager of the FW, spoke on Sunday of a “bone of contention” in the coalition, which is now being dispelled. He welcomed Söder’s announcement to “move away from the incidence value as the only salvific corona indicator”. The planned traffic light system is “the right strategy for the approaching autumn” – because the incidence becomes less meaningful with increasing vaccination coverage, positive tests and hospitalization have long been decoupled. 3 G must “become our magic formula to bring normality and security under one roof”.