It is a turning point in the history of Northern Ireland: for the first time since the founding of the British province in 1921, Sinn Féin is the strongest force in the Northern Irish Parliament. The party, which represents the Republican Catholic section of the population, won at least 27 of the 90 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly in the regional elections. Sinn Féin was thus uncatchable ahead of the unionist-Protestant parties, above all the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the strongest force to date. Only the result of one constituency was expected for late Saturday evening. Forming a government in Belfast is considered extremely difficult. Northern Ireland faces months of uncertainty, possibly violence.
According to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended the Northern Ireland conflict, the two largest parties from both camps must share power. As the election winner, Sinn Féin is entitled to the office of head of government, with top candidate Michelle O’Neill likely to do so First Ministers will. If so, it would be a historic turning point, because the post has always been occupied by politicians from parties that support the maintenance of the union with Great Britain. For the first time, Sinn Féin is the leader of the party that advocates uniting Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. Sinn Féin was once the political arm of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which used force for a United Ireland fought.
Whether a unity government of Sinn Féin and the DUP will come about is completely open. DUP lead candidate Jeffrey Donaldson had already announced before the election that he would block the formation of a government. His party had their then in February First Ministers withdrawn, thereby bursting the former unity government with Sinn Féin. The reason for this is the Brexit agreement that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed with the European Union.
The agreement between the UK and the EU provides for a special status for Northern Ireland, which is set out in the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol. The DUP fears that this agreement will mean that Northern Ireland could no longer be part of the UK in the long term. During the Brexit negotiations, Unionists in Northern Ireland had repeatedly pressed for the province to be treated the same as the rest of the United Kingdom.
However, because Johnson removed his country from the EU internal market and the customs union, a special solution had to be found due to Northern Ireland’s geographical location and historical situation. The aim was that under no circumstances should a hard border be erected on the island of Ireland, and there is still agreement on this between the different political camps.
So the solution was for the British provinces to remain subject to EU rules so that goods traffic between Northern Ireland and Ireland would not have to be controlled. Only: The regulation negotiated by Johnson also means that goods traffic between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is controlled, after all, goods that do not meet EU standards could reach Ireland, i.e. the EU, via Northern Ireland.
Boris Johnson has created a border in the Irish Sea
The DUP and its supporters see this as nothing more than a split in the UK. Basically, the prime minister created a border in the Irish Sea. The DUP has been fighting the so-called “Irish Sea Border” ever since, and the Brexit dispute was their number one campaign issue. Even after the vote, the DUP is likely to stick to its promise and only enter a new government when the Northern Ireland Protocol is amended.
In London government circles it is therefore expected that Johnson will use the outcome of the election in Northern Ireland for his own purposes. The Prime Minister is likely to argue to Brussels that nobody – not even the EU – can have an interest in Northern Ireland being de facto without a government. That is why Johnson will probably once again demand a change to the contract that he negotiated and signed himself.
The prime minister first wants to seek dialogue with the EU Commission. Should the talks between London and Brussels fail, however, Johnson should not shy away from breaching the contract. According to the British media, he is already preparing a national law that could undermine parts of the Brexit agreement. Of the Times According to Johnson, he has even dispatched a confidante to Washington to convince the government there that his actions would not call into question the Good Friday Agreement. US President Joe Biden, who has Irish family roots, had already made it clear several times that he Good Friday agreement considers untouchable.
In Brussels, Johnson’s maneuvers are viewed with some suspicion. On the one hand, the prime minister can be expected to do anything, according to commission circles. On the other hand, there is certainly hope that Johnson does not want to jeopardize the urgently needed unity of the West with another Brexit dispute, especially not in light of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.
In the Brexit dispute, Sinn Féin represents the position of the business associations in Northern Ireland
According to the Brexit agreement, the Northern Ireland regional parliament must vote no later than 2024 on whether the Northern Ireland Protocol should be retained. So far it looks like the DUP is likely to be overruled by the other parties. Sinn Féin, for example, takes the position of the major business associations in Northern Ireland, who believe that only technical changes are necessary. Brussels would have no problem with that either.
Sinn Féin had tried to ignore the Brexit issue as much as possible during the election campaign. The successful top candidate, O’Neill, focused primarily on issues that opinion polls indicated were the biggest problems: rising energy prices, poor health care and the acute housing shortage.
Sinn Féin’s core concern, namely the unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, played a minor role in the election campaign. Nonetheless, Sinn Féin’s stated goal of holding a referendum on Irish unity remains. If O’Neill has his way, it should be ready before the end of this decade.
The general secretary of Johnson’s ruling Conservative party, Oliver Dowden, said the day after the election that London would not stand in the way of a referendum. The prerequisite, however, is that there is ongoing support from Northern Ireland for the unification in opinion polls. So far, however, only about 30 percent of Northern Ireland voters are in favor of it.
The Sinn Féin camp is therefore hoping for the year 2025. The next elections will then take place in Ireland at the latest. There, too, Sinn Féin has the best chance of appointing the next head of government. Should it actually happen that the Republican Catholic Party triumphs in both parts of the Irish island, the question should be one United Ireland come more to the fore again. And with it the danger that violence could break out again in Northern Ireland.