Armenia feels betrayed by its protector Russia and finds new partners in the EU and the USA. Even though it will take time to become independent from Russia, Armenia at least demands one thing: respect.
As a farewell, the Russian national anthem echoed through the building of Yerevan airport, followed by the Armenian anthem. After a protocol handover to their Armenian colleagues, dozens of Russian border guards marched out of the airport leading the way with the white, blue and red national flag.
This ceremony ended the presence of Russian border guards at Armenia’s only international airport after almost 32 years. By contract, Russia will provide around 4,500 border guards as well as roughly the same number of soldiers to protect Armenia.
The Armenian government sees the withdrawal from the airport as a first step towards disengagement. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pushed through this in May at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Russia also adhered to a second agreement: its border guards also withdrew from Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan. They had set up a number of posts there in 2020.
Abandoned
A helicopter airfield has now been cleared in this border region. It was used by Russia to supply its “peacekeeping troops”. Their task was to protect the more than 100,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict region that broke away from Azerbaijan. But in September 2023 the Armenians fled from an “anti-terrorist operation” by the Azerbaijani armed forces, which led to the capture of the area.
Reports from refugees suggest that the Russian soldiers supported the disarmament and evacuation of the Armenians – and thus to some extent abdicated their protective role. Therefore, many Armenians do not attribute the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh solely to the failure of their own armed forces. They feel betrayed by Russia, which sees its enemy Azerbaijan as the more important economic and strategic partner.
EU observers in Armenia
This is not just about Nagorno-Karabakh – which lies within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. It is also about the territory of Armenia itself: Azerbaijani troops invaded several times in 2021 and 2022. To this day, they still occupy strategically important heights on the Armenian side of the common border. This violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity obliges the protecting power Russia and the CSTO defense alliance led by it to take action on Armenia’s side. But nothing of the sort happened.
Armenia complained that the CSTO had not even passed a resolution against Azerbaijan. It was only when the Armenian government asked the EU in autumn 2022 that the CSTO offered a fact-finding mission. But Armenia opted for an EU observer mission. Since the unarmed EU observers began patrolling the borders with Azerbaijan, there have been no military clashes comparable to those of 2021 and 2022.
Military exercises with US Americans
Meanwhile, Armenia’s membership in the CSTO has been frozen. It no longer pays membership fees and does not take part in alliance meetings or military exercises.
Instead, Armenia is looking for new partners. It is buying military equipment from France, India and the Czech Republic. The “Eagle Partner” exercise took place with US military personnel for the second time in July. The US Command for Europe and Africa stated that the goals include training for joint peacekeeping missions and familiarizing themselves with each other’s equipment.
Armenia will receive ten million euros from the EU for its armed forces – in addition to a resilience and growth package worth 270 million euros. Negotiations are now underway on visa liberalization for the Schengen area and further steps towards rapprochement. The government in Yerevan briefly considered a referendum on joining the Union.
Economic Interconnection
Russia, which is politically and militarily tied to Ukraine, reacts to all this with regret, warnings and threats. However, it has not yet used any of the instruments that Armenia fears. One important lever is the price that Russia demands for the exclusive supply of gas. In addition, Russia is the most important sales market for Armenian products and – despite the wave of emigration as a result of the war in Ukraine – continues to be an important job market for Armenians. Many families at home are still dependent on the remittances.
The close economic ties are also reflected in Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. A withdrawal from the internal market of the five member states – Russia and Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – linked by a customs union would be a lengthy process and economically disadvantageous for Armenia.
Leaving the Eurasian Economic Union is not being discussed. Prime Minister Pashinyan has, however, announced his withdrawal from the CSTO military alliance. However, he did not give a date – and a closer look reveals that there is still a lot of rhetoric and few consistent steps.
In case of doubt, alone
Armenia and the other states in the region are trying to protect themselves in all directions and are watching closely: Will Russia win the war against Ukraine? Which of their promises will the EU states keep? How will EU expansion be discussed? Who will win the election in the USA? How will the situation develop in the Middle East and Asia?
For example, what Sargis Khandanyan, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in Parliament, recently described in a conversation with German journalists is the realization that Armenia cannot rely on anyone when in doubt. As a consequence, it must develop its own economic and military strength – with a number of partners.
Armenia demands respect
It is clear that Armenia can only break away from Russia in the long term and exploit Russia’s weaknesses here and there. In this respect, measures such as the exercises with the US military are initially aimed at gaining more respect from Russia, says security expert Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan.
During their final hours at Yerevan airport, Russian border guards had to watch as US soldiers who had trained with the Armenian armed forces in the previous days were processed.
Parts of this article are based on a research trip through Armenia organized by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation; travel expenses are borne by NDR.