Russia conquers and NATO at its expense on the 861st day of the conflict

Did you miss the latest developments on the war in Ukraine? 20 minutes gives you an update every evening. Between strong statements, advances on the front and the results of the fighting, here is the essential information from this Wednesday, July 3.

The fact of the day

Russia claimed control of the first district of the strategic city of Chassiv Yar on Wednesday, which it has been trying to seize for months in the hope of a decisive breakthrough in eastern Ukraine. Its high position would allow Russian troops to reach Kramatorsk, the largest mining city in the region and the Ukrainian garrison on this part of the front, with their cannons.

In addition, at least five people were killed in a new shelling in Dnipro, a large city in central Ukraine. Russian troops have “liberated the Noviy district” on the eastern outskirts of Chassiv Yar, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. Located in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, the city is of major military importance.

The Telegram channel DeepState, made up of open-source researchers close to kyiv, claimed that the area had been “completely razed” and that continuing to hold it would only lead to “increased losses.”

The Russian army has been on the initiative in recent months, gradually gaining ground. It is seeking to break through the Ukrainian defense lines in the east, to conquer the part of Donbass that it does not control, more than two years after the start of the invasion. The Russians are also continuing their daily strikes, particularly on cities and energy infrastructure in Ukraine, which is living to the rhythm of power cuts.

Statement of the day

“Today we witnessed the first cases of release of political prisoners in Belarus” »

Belarusian opposition leader in exile Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said Wednesday that political prisoners had been released by Belarus, a Russian ally that has been subject to a ruthless crackdown. Thousands of people have been arrested and opposition figures, activists and journalists sentenced to harsh sentences in recent years in the EU-bound country, which has seen hundreds of thousands of its citizens flee.

The human rights NGO Viasna announced that it had been informed of the release of five people, two women and three men. One of those released is a journalist, according to the same source. The NGO has counted more than 1,400 people imprisoned for their opposition to the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, who this month celebrates 30 years in power in Belarus.

Among those released is the leader of a banned opposition party (Popular Front) Rygor Kastuev, his son-in-law told reporters. He had been sentenced to 10 years in prison on September 5, 2022, for “attempting to seize state power by unconstitutional means.” Svetlana Tikhanovskaya added that more than 200 political prisoners “are in critical health condition” and “their lives are in great danger” in prison.

The number of the day

40 billion euros per year. This is the amount of military support for Ukraine that NATO countries agreed on Wednesday, without any time commitment, we learned from a diplomatic source. This initiative, which will be made official next week at an Alliance summit, was launched by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The latter wanted a multi-year commitment from the allies in order to anchor this military aid, which is essential to Ukraine in its war against Russia, over the long term.

This amount of 40 billion euros per year corresponds to the level of current cumulative aid from NATO countries, Jens Stoltenberg had indicated. Washington has however explained that it cannot legally commit to several years, saying however that it is ready to review this aid in 2025, these diplomats specified in Brussels.

Jens Stoltenberg had also suggested that the distribution of this aid should be based on the gross domestic product (GDP) of each member country of the Alliance. But Turkey refused to do so, according to these sources. The text was to refer to “a fair sharing of the burden”, without further reference to GDP.

The trend

Europeans remain in solidarity with Ukraine against the Russian invasion and are broadly in favor of increasing arms shipments to kyiv, but are divided on the possible outcome of the war, according to a poll published Wednesday. Ukrainians, also surveyed, remain overwhelmingly opposed to any territorial concessions to Russia.

“Across Europe, there is strong public support for increasing the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine by its allies,” notes the ECFR research center, which commissioned the poll in 15 countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Ukraine.

They are also in the majority in thinking that the war will end on the basis of an agreement negotiated between the belligerents (with the exception of Ukraine and Estonia where the majority thinks that kyiv will prevail on the battlefield), according to this study carried out in May among 19,566 people. They are also united, for non-Ukrainians, against the idea of ​​sending their soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

On the other hand, they are much more divided on the position that Europe should adopt, between a group of countries where the populations mostly think that Europeans should help Ukraine to reconquer its territories (Estonia, Sweden, United Kingdom, Poland, Portugal), a group where the majority think that Europe should push Ukraine to negotiate (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Czech Republic, Switzerland), an undecided group where opinions are divided roughly between these two options and those who do not express a precise opinion on this question (Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany).

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