
The pro-Russian party “Dawn of Nemunas” is expected to come second in the first round of the Lithuanian elections. The Social Democrats are ahead.
Update from October 13th, 10:55 p.m.: After the first round of parliamentary elections in Lithuania, the Social Democrats are probably in first place. The electoral commission in Vilnius announced this after counting almost 70 percent of the electoral districts on Sunday evening.
The Social Democrats, previously the opposition party, received around 23 percent of the vote in the Baltic EU and NATO country. Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte’s conservative Fatherland Union only comes in third place with a good 13 percent. Nemunas’ populist party Dawn, which ran for the first time, was in between with just under 18 percent.
Sunday’s vote was the first of two rounds: voters initially decided on 70 seats in parliament using proportional representation. In two weeks they will then vote on 71 direct mandates in the Seimas parliament.
Lithuania election is a sensation: latest polls predict success for Putin’s friends “Dawn”.
First report from October 13th: Vilnius – Political tensions in Lithuania are particularly high against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the country’s geopolitical situation. Lithuania borders the Russian exclave Kaliningrad and Belarus, which further exacerbates the security situation. In this tense environment, the parliamentary elections have begun, which will take place in two rounds.
The latest polls show a possible change in the political landscape: the opposition Social Democrats are leading with 18 percent, followed by the Putin-friendly Dawn of Nemunas party, which is doing surprisingly well. The ruling conservative Fatherland Union, which forms the government together with two liberal parties and is led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, was recently only in third place.
“Dawn of Nemunas” in Lithuania election: New xenophobic and pro-Russia party
The first round of elections began on October 9th, in which the distribution of 70 parliamentary seats will be decided according to proportional representation. The decision on the 71 direct mandates follows two weeks later. A success of the Dawn Treader could significantly influence Lithuanian politics, especially in foreign policy. The party emphasizes that foreign policy should primarily serve national interests and criticizes Western support for Ukraine.
The Dawn of Nemunas party, named after Lithuania’s longest river, was founded just nine months ago by Remigijus Zemaitaitis. Zemaitaitis, a politician with a controversial past, resigned from his previous party following an anti-Semitism scandal. He takes advantage of the dissatisfaction of the rural population, who feel disappointed by the current government.
In contrast to previous elections, economic issues are less prominent in Lithuania this time. Instead, LGBT rights and migration dominate the discourse. Zemaitaitis cleverly uses these issues to mobilize rural voters who often rail against urban, liberal elites.
Vytautas Bruveris, a Lithuanian journalist, warns of the potential danger posed by the Dawn Treader. He sees parallels to Kremlin propaganda, which emphasizes xenophobia and national interests. Nevertheless, according to sociologist Vladas Gaidys, the majority of Lithuanians remain firmly anchored in their support for democracy and the EU. Incumbent Nauseda recently won clearly in the presidential election in Lithuania.
Results of the Lithuanian election at night: polling stations close at 7 p.m
In total, six political parties are expected to make it into parliament. An absolute majority does not seem to be achievable for any party. The polling stations close at 8 p.m. local time (7 p.m. CEST), and reliable results are expected on Monday night.
Due to its location on NATO’s eastern flank, Lithuania is in a particularly exposed position in the geopolitical conflict with Russia. Lithuania perceives the war in Ukraine as a direct threat to its own security. For this reason, Germany plans to permanently station a combat-ready brigade with up to 5,000 Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania.