Renaud Muselier (LR) beaten by the RN, according to two polls

Two and a half months before the regional elections and after a psychodrama at the head of the Republicans, the list of the National Rally, led by Thierry Mariani, would win against that carried by Renaud Muselier (LR), in Paca. In any case, this is what the results of two opinion polls suggest for the first time.

Marine le Pen’s party would come first in the first round with 36% (+ 5% compared to the last poll in April) on the assumption of maintaining a list of the presidential majority, according to an IFOP Fiducial poll for LCI .

Two points ahead in the second round

He would precede the list led by the outgoing president of the region, Renaud Muselier (LR, UDI) who would obtain 27%, that of the ecologist Laurent Félizia (EELV, PS, PCF), at 13%, that of the Walkers led by the Secretary of State Sophie Cluzel at 11% (-2%) and a list of rebels led by Marine Lesure 7%. In the event of an LR list supported by the presidential majority, the RN would further increase its score with 38% of the vote. Renaud Muselier’s LR-LREM list would get 34% and Laurent Félizia’s 14%, the rebels remaining at 7%.

In the second round, in the event of a triangular, Thierry Mariani (RN) would win with 41% of the votes, ahead of Renaud Muselier (LR-LREM) 39% of the votes and Jean-Laurent Félizia 20%.

Confirmation in the second survey

This trend is confirmed by a second Ipsos / sopra stéria survey for France Television which places “delinquency” and “immigration” at the top of the concerns of the inhabitants of the Paca region. According to this study, the RN would come first in the first round with 39% against 34% for an LR-LREM list, 20% for the left allied to environmentalists and 5% for rebels.

In the second round, in the hypothesis of a triangular, the RN would win with 40% of the votes ahead of LR-LREM 36%, the left list and environmentalists obtaining 24%. The situation would remain unchanged in the hypothesis of an LR list not supported by LREM (RN: 40%, LR: 35% and EELV-PS-PCF: 25%) or in that of a quadrangular (RN: 38%, LR: 25%, EELV-PS-PCF 21% and LREM: 16%).

During the last regional elections, the PS then led by Christophe Castaner had withdrawn its list between the two rounds, to block the National Front led by Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, paving the way for the election of LR Christian Estrosi, to whom Renaud Muselier took over.

The Ifop poll was carried out by self-administered questionnaire from May 6 to 10 among 954 people registered on the electoral rolls taken from 1,054 people representative of the region’s population. The Ipsos poll was carried out from May 8 to 10, by internet, among 1,000 people registered on the electoral lists and representative of the population of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur.