Coronavirus
Omicron case numbers in the UK are falling – an epidemiologist believes two factors are crucial
Omicron had recently spread, among other things, in the capital London
© Victoria Jones/ / Picture Alliance
Great Britain recently had to contend with a massive omicron wave. But since the beginning of January, the number of cases has halved without lockdown measures. An epidemiologist explains which factors are likely to play a role – and whether something similar can also be expected in Germany.
It is a first, cautious sigh of relief on the island: After the number of omicron cases in Great Britain only knew one direction for a long time – namely steeply upwards – a trend reversal has been emerging for a few days. The number of cases reported daily is still at a very high level and has recently fluctuated slightly again. However, it has roughly halved since the beginning of January. From almost 200,000 new cases per day, the value recently fell to less than 100,000 new infections. The peak of the omicron wave seems to have passed. At least that is the hope in Britain.
The drop in the number of cases is also being carefully observed in other countries. After South Africa, the UK was one of the first countries in the world to be hit hard by the omicron variant. Can conclusions for the development of the numbers in Germany be derived from the situation there? The Bremen epidemiologist Hajo Zeeb is skeptical, since the starting position in Germany differs from that in Great Britain, as he explained in an interview with the star explained.
Zeeb blames two main factors for the fall in the number of cases in Great Britain: “Public immunity in Great Britain should be at a fairly high level,” said the expert. “In addition, with the so-called ‘Plan B’, new measures against Omikron took effect from the beginning of December – including wearing masks indoors and a home office obligation.” These rules did not previously exist in Great Britain.
According to Zeeb, the high level of population immunity in Great Britain is due to several factors. “Great Britain is quite far ahead with the booster vaccinations, further than Germany. In addition, the vaccination rate is cheaper because more older people are vaccinated in Great Britain.” Last but not least, there were more infections in Great Britain during the course of the pandemic, also due to the government’s more liberal approach. These would also contribute to the overall immunity, according to the epidemiologist. At the same time, he emphasized that this increase in infections also had “consequences”. For example, in relation to the total population, Great Britain has more Covid-19 deaths than Germany.
The omicron peak is expected in mid-February
Whether the omicron wave in Germany will follow a similar pattern – rapid increase, rapidly falling number of cases – is “difficult to predict,” said the epidemiologist. In principle, however, a slower doubling time with Omicron can be observed in Germany. Due to the measures currently in force, the peak in the number of cases is reached more slowly than in Great Britain or South Africa, which is good. This would also somewhat “equalize” the negative side effects of high case numbers, such as hospital admissions, according to Zeeb.
This is also “urgently necessary” with a view to the vaccination rate in Germany. The epidemiologist referred to the high number of unvaccinated people over the age of 60 in Germany and put it at around three million. “These would all be people who are exposed to particular dangers when the number of cases is high. Older people and existing previous illnesses favor severe courses.”
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) expects the peak of the omicron wave in Germany in mid-February. “Several hundred thousand cases per day” are to be expected, said Lauterbach on Wednesday evening in the ZDF program “Markus Lanz”.
It is striking that the number of Covid-19 patients in British hospitals has not recently risen to a new high, despite the record number of cases with Omikron. she has herself according to UK government data leveled off at a plateau of almost 20,000 patients. The value is still well below the figures from early January 2021. At the peak of the winter wave at that time, around 39,000 Covid 19 patients had to be treated in British clinics.
Could the intensive care units in Germany also cope with high case numbers with Omikron? Zeeb warned against wanting to transfer the observation from England one-to-one to Germany. “It can be different for us, simply because of the lower vaccination rate among the elderly.” Admittedly, people who become infected with omicron should probably be treated less often in an intensive care unit. While Delta’s share was around 0.8 percent, Omicron’s is estimated to be around 0.3 percent. However, the value is still subject to uncertainties, according to Zeeb. Even minor fluctuations could have “dramatic consequences”.
At the moment the number of corona intensive care patients in Germany is not increasing. “But we’re not yet at the high number of omicron cases that have taken place elsewhere.”
In Germany are currently around 2570 Covid-19 patients treated in intensive care. It is known that severe courses only become apparent a few days after the onset of the symptoms. The number of hospitals therefore always increases with a certain time lag.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Wednesday that he wanted to overturn the containment measures such as the obligation to wear masks and work from home. Hajo Zeeb described this decision as “brave – especially in view of the currently still very high number of around 100,000 new infections per day.”
Will the plan work? “Great Britain is now trusting in the further course of the epidemic and is trying to let the infection process slip into an endemic situation. Once this situation has been reached, there will still be infections, but they are easy to control.” There are models according to which this project could succeed in Great Britain – at least for the coming months, according to Zeeb. However, it is unclear what will follow in the subsequent cold season.
“We would certainly have to take a closer look towards winter, especially in view of Omicron. The unvaccinated people who were infected in Great Britain have built up weaker immunity than infected vaccinated people. They could thus be prevented from being infected again – maybe with new virus variants – in the UK insufficiently protected during the year.”