Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are seen as key to the future of nuclear energy, potentially reaching 80 gigawatts by 2040 if supported adequately. They offer flexibility for innovative applications but face challenges like high costs and regulatory hurdles. The International Energy Agency forecasts record nuclear output by 2025, especially in China and India, while Europe grapples with costly projects like the Flamanville reactor, prompting calls for careful planning and financing before expanding its nuclear program.
The Future of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Many experts believe that the future of nuclear energy is closely tied to the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These innovative reactors are designed to harness the strengths of nuclear power, providing reliable and CO2-free electricity while minimizing the common drawbacks like budget overruns and extended construction timelines.
According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), SMRs could achieve an impressive installed capacity of up to 80 gigawatts by the year 2040, contingent on adequate support. This projection represents approximately 10 percent of the global nuclear power capacity expected at that time, with the first SMRs anticipated to commence commercial operations around 2030.
Innovative Applications and Challenges Ahead
The IEA highlights that small modular reactors present exciting growth opportunities for the nuclear sector. Unlike traditional nuclear power plants, SMRs can be deployed in various innovative configurations. For instance, they can be strategically positioned near industrial facilities to supply electricity directly for steel production, chemical manufacturing, or hydrogen generation. They also show potential for powering data centers.
Despite the promise of this technology, significant challenges remain. The IEA report states that the nuclear industry must work to drastically lower the costs of SMRs by 2040, aiming for price levels similar to large hydropower and offshore wind projects. Achieving this goal will require regulatory adjustments, particularly in Western countries where the approval processes can be complex. Although the modular construction approach allows for industrial production efficiencies, many of the over 100 SMR designs currently in development pose regulatory challenges.
Investors also face hurdles, as the IEA indicates that new financing models will be essential for the successful deployment of small reactors.
In addition to its focus on emerging nuclear technologies, the IEA expresses optimism about the current generation of reactors. They predict a record nuclear power output of approximately 2800 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2025, marking a 7 percent increase from 2021. Globally, over 70 gigawatts of new capacity is currently under construction, the highest level seen in 30 years, with significant growth occurring in China and India. By 2030, China is expected to surpass both Europe and the USA in terms of installed capacity.
In contrast, Europe faces its own set of challenges, as illustrated by a recent report from the French Court of Auditors, which criticizes the French nuclear program. The report specifically addresses the Flamanville reactor, where total construction costs have ballooned to 23.7 billion euros after 17 years, far exceeding the original estimate of 3.3 billion euros. The Court of Auditors questions the profitability forecasts provided by EDF and urges the postponement of plans for six new reactors until adequate financing and detailed studies are completed.