An ex-president sentenced to prison who uses the embassy asylum to campaign for his deputy: The situation before the presidential election in Panama is confusing – and also raises legal questions.
Shortly before the presidential election in Panama there is chaos: the real favorite, ex-President Ricardo Martinelli, has taken refuge in the Nicaragua embassy. He was sentenced to more than ten years in prison for money laundering. The right-wing populist was president from 2009 to 2014. Although people are fed up with widespread corruption, voters also see him as a candidate who has ensured years of prosperity.
Now Martinelli is happily continuing his campaign for José Raúl Mulino, who was actually supposed to be his vice president, but is now running in his place – and is ahead in the polls, explains political scientist Daniel Zovatto from the Wilson Center: “Mulino is clearly identified with Martinelli, so that people actually vote for him when they vote for Mulino, they know that Mulino has the full support of Martinelli.”
However, his candidacy was uncertain for a long time; he also threatened to be removed from the electoral list because he was not nominated in accordance with the electoral law. It was only on Friday that the judiciary approved Mulino’s candidacy.
José Raúl Mulino entered the election campaign as the favorite to replace former President Ricardo Martinelli – the highest court has not yet decided whether he can actually run.
Solutions to previously stirred up worries
He is competing with seven other candidates for the presidency. They include independent candidate Ricardo Lombana, a lawyer who is in second place in polls with around 15 percent, and Martinelli’s predecessor Martín Torrijos with 13 percent.
The election campaign was dominated by issues such as corruption and migration. The population’s dissatisfaction is great. Last year, it became public how current and previous governments used funds earmarked for education to financially support families and friends who, in turn, have close ties to political and business elites.
The issue of migration was also raised during the election campaign. Part of the world’s most dangerous migration route runs through Panama through the Darién jungle, which 500,000 people crossed last year alone. Various candidates have called for the route to be closed, including Mulino. A certainly unrealistic suggestion, because in a jungle there will always be loopholes; However, this would make the route even more deadly. But by polarizing the issue, an appeal is made to patriotism – and the citizens of Panama are promised solutions to previously stirred up concerns.
Hardly any more trust in democracy
The high cost of living and medication, the drinking water crisis and the consequences of the pandemic have put many people under strain in recent years. According to a study by the International Center for Political and Social Studies, the precarious situation of many people has an impact on their trust in democracy and institutions.
Claire Nevache contributed to the study. “It has been shown that the people who least support democracy are those who have the least access to basic goods and services,” she reports. “As long as we have a population in which 25 percent do not have access to water 24 hours a day, in which the majority evaluates public goods such as drinking water, health, education, electricity, transport as inadequate, inadequate, of poor quality, it will “It will be very difficult to convince this population that democracy is useful for them.”
The annual survey by the non-governmental organization Latinobarómetros also confirms this trend. In 2023, 83 percent of respondents in Panama said they were dissatisfied with democracy and institutions. In particular, a law that, among other things, was intended to legalize the continued operation of the largest copper and gold mine in Central America, which was operated by a Canadian company, for up to 40 years, was provocative in Panama. People took to the streets across the country until the highest court declared the law unconstitutional.
In this climate, elections are now taking place. None of the candidates has an answer to the country’s pressing problems, namely increasing impoverishment. According to election forecasts, Mulino will win the elections.