Pre-election poll: Hans has to fear for re-election

Ten days until the state elections in Saarland – and that could be a disaster for CDU Prime Minister Hans. Because the SPD is loud ARD pre-election poll front.

The Saarland has been governed by the CDU for 22 years – the last ten years of which in a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD. In 2018, Tobias Hans replaced the then Prime Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who then moved to Berlin as CDU General Secretary.

Hans has to fear for re-election

Ten days before the state elections in Saarland, Prime Minister Hans has to worry about his re-election. If the state parliament were re-elected in Saarland next Sunday, the CDU would get 31 percent. This would mean an increase of 2 points compared to the last Saarland trend in February, but it would still be well below the 2017 election result (40.7 percent). The SPD would lose one point compared to February, but with currently 37 percent it would become the strongest force in the state parliament and significantly improve on its result from five years ago (29.6).

Four other parties on the brink

Four other parties cannot be sure whether they will make it into the state parliament in Saarbrücken. The AfD has the best prospects in the current mood. At 6 percent at the moment (-2 percent compared to February), it would be around the level of the last state election (6.2 percent).

The Greens, who dropped out of the state parliament in 2017, could expect 5 percent (-1 percent compared to February), as could the FDP (-1 percent compared to February), which has not been represented in the state parliament since 2012.

The left, which still achieved a double-digit result (12.8 percent) in 2017, would, on the other hand, fail at the mandate threshold with 4 percent and fall out of the state parliament after 13 years. All other parties together would have 12 percent, including the new political formation Bunt.Saar with 3 percent.

Poll is not a prediction of election outcome

This survey is expressly not a forecast, but about the political mood in the current week. The Sunday question measures current voting tendencies and not actual voting behavior and thus determines an intermediate status in the opinion-forming process of the electorate, which is only completed on election Sunday. For this reason, conclusions about the outcome of the election are only possible to a limited extent, because many voters commit themselves shortly before an election.

Final campaign phase crucial

The last phase of the election campaign, in which undecided and tactical voters are addressed, is also of great importance. One in six eligible voters in Saarland does not want to rule out that the current preference for a party will change again by the election Sunday. Almost two-thirds are certain of which party they will cross their votes with.

Even minor changes can affect, for example, how many parties will be represented in the state parliament in Saarbrücken. This, in turn, could change the mathematically possible majorities for forming a government.

Current desired coalition: GroKo under SPD leadership

If the outcome of the election corresponds to the current Sunday question, the current coalition of CDU and SPD could continue its work, albeit under SPD leadership. That would also be the coalition that the Saarlanders would most like to see at the moment: 48 percent of those surveyed in Saarland approve of this coalition, while 37 percent rate a grand coalition led by the CDU as very good or good. Around a quarter of the Saarlanders (27 percent) support a traffic light, as currently governed in the federal government.

Other coalitions would not be possible with the current numbers, but only small shifts would make other alliances possible.

Direct election: SPD candidate before CDU Prime Minister

If the people in Saarland could elect their Prime Minister directly – and had the choice between the incumbent Prime Minister Hans and the challenger from the SPD Anke Rehlinger – then 49 percent would currently choose the SPD candidate and 33 percent for the incumbent.

Rehlinger has been Vice Prime Minister for eight years and was the SPD’s top candidate in 2017. At that time, the SPD was defeated by the CDU – and Rehlinger was also well behind Kramp-Karrenbauer when it came to direct elections.