Geraint Thomas is the persistent type. A year after losing the Tour of Italy by a few seconds the day before the finish, after a time reversed by Primoz Roglic, the Welshman is determined to leave the Colosseum on May 26, with his thumb in the air, under the cheers of the crowd. Only problem, if last year’s executioner, busy putting betadine every morning, is not there, the ultimate gladiator Tadej Pogacar has decided to come and learn his skills in the Boot.
After winning a few battles on the Strade Bianche or the Tirreno, the Slovenian intends to conquer the entire territory. And even if Geraint Thomas promises that, no, the invader has not won a war in advance (“We do not think that first place is inaccessible, on the contrary”), it is difficult to believe that a stick can compete with a bazooka, especially when it has repeatedly proven its power since the start of the year.
Competition at home
So, in the wake of his last demonstration on Liège-Bastogne-Liège won by pedaling with one leg, we no longer wonder if Tadej Pogacar will win the Giro but by how much in advance. Will he do better than Ivan Basso, in 2009, who relegated his runner-up, José Enrique Gutierrez, to more than nine minutes? Better than Alfonso Calzolari, in 1914, who took his first pursuer almost two hours?
“He can easily beat Basso’s record, because behind him, there is not strong competition, with Bardet, Thomas, Uijtdebroeks, Tiberi…,” assures us Eddy Mazzoleni, third in the 2007 Tour of Italy. Pogacar, he has shown for several years that he is much stronger than these guys. » So, without Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel remaining at home, let’s calculate together the lead that Pogacar will have over his second in three weeks in Rome.
First step, first banderilla?
What if Tadej Pogacar crushed a three-week race in the first stage? A little big, some would say, but very likely according to Stefano Garzelli, winner of the Giro in 2000, contacted by 20 minutes : “It’s a stage that can end in a sprint in small groups, because the climbs of Superga and Maddalena are hard. But, having spoken about it with him, I know that Filippo Ganna, who is from Piedmont, would very much like to bring it to his home. Everything will depend on how Pogacar wants to climb Maddalena (7 km at 6.8%, around twenty kilometers from the finish). »
So imagine the Slovenian champion going alone on the last climb, as he did in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, to knock out the entire peloton. Hello, goodbye, thanks for the suspense. “Yes, Pogacar can have the pink jersey from day one and keep it until the end,” believes Garzelli.
Our prediction: Pogacar keeps his team rolling but fails to get the rest of the favorites behind them. It regulates the sprint of the favorites and takes a few bonus seconds.
Chronographs, true justices of the peace?
Friends who are not time trial specialists, prepare well. The Giro has prepared two long stages (40 and 30 km), the first of which arrives in Perugia, with the last six kilometers uphill. Friendly. “It’s not a very tough Giro,” concedes Stefano Garzelli, who recognized all the main stages before commenting on them for Rai. I really think that it will be the two times that will make the difference and position the riders for the general. » “On both times, I’m not worried about Pogacar, who is really good at this type of exercise,” adds Mazzoleni.
The day after the first time trial, the first big mountain stage takes the runners to Prati di Tivo, and a final climb of 14 km at 7% average. Enough to escape from the general? “I believe that the team’s intentions are to take the leader’s jersey before the eighth stage in Prati di Tivo and afterward to manage all that,” assures Garzelli.
Our prediction: Before the first time trial, Tadej Pogacar will win, to everyone’s surprise, the stage the day before, which leads to Rapolano Terme. A steep climber four kilometers from the finish (with passages at 20%) will bring him out of his torpor and save him a few seconds. During qualifying, he will knock the competition to the ground, taking several minutes ahead, even if Geraint Thomas will resist rather well.
The triptych of hell
Forget week two, where not much should happen, and get ready for a trio that will make you want to hang up the bike for good. Set aside a few days to attend the 15th, 16th and 17th stages. At the start, although far from the finish, the Mortirolo (12.6 km at 7.6%) should put a good number of favorites in the tough, before finishing in style in Livigno.
“ The Livigno stage is going to be very tough, with 220 km. I know the end, with the last two kilometers, which are at an average of 19%, it will be complicated, especially with the altitude, where we are at 2,000 m, details Mazzoleni. I even think that Pogacar is capable of attacking, but it will depend a little on the lead over the second that he has at that moment. »
“The arrivals at Monte Pana (16th stage), which passes through the Stelvio, hoping that it will happen because there is a lot of snow, and Passo del Brocon (17th) will also be important,” continues Garzelli. But this whole Giro depends on Pogacar, on his management of the race, on the management of the UAE team. For me, his objective is not to win everything he wants with as much margin as possible, but to think about his other objective, the Tour de France. For me, his Tour of Italy will be done in three stages: get the pink jersey, save time, manage all that. »
Our prediction: Pogacar will easily win the Livigno stage with a minimum lead of two minutes over the main “favorites”. The other two big mountain stages will help him manage, he will lose time on a few big riders, but without danger for the general.
The final bouquet
On the eve of the arrival in Rome, the runners will finish with the double ascent of Monte Grappa (18.2 km at 8.1%). Pogacar could give himself a little challenge to catch the whole peloton on the second climb. “For me, if he already has a significant lead (with two to three minutes), he will stay calm during the 16th and 17th stage and wait for Monte Grappa, which is a very complicated climb, to put it back on. »
Our prediction: Three minutes ahead at the finish for Tadej Pogacar, who wanted to finish this Giro in style. Four stage victories in total for the Slovenian and a seven-minute lead in total. Enough not to be started before the Tour de France. There, with Vingegaard, Roglic, Evenepoel, and even his teammate Ayuso, the matter will be different. Normally.