On Tuesday in Cairo, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with CIA chief William Burns while US and Israeli delegations discussed efforts to broker a truce in the Gaza Strip. According to Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s office, the two men “discussed the latest developments in joint efforts to reach a truce and ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.”
After nine months of war in Gaza, Qatar and Egypt are preparing this week to give new impetus to negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas. 20 Minutes takes stock of these efforts at discussions for a truce.
What’s the plan?
The basis of the talks is to be a framework unveiled by US President Joe Biden in late May and presented as an Israeli proposal. This three-phase plan is to lead to “a lasting ceasefire and the release of all hostages” held in Gaza since October 7. First phase: during the first six weeks, the project provides for a ceasefire accompanied by an Israeli withdrawal from densely populated areas of Gaza. “Some” Israeli hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The truce would allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip or what remains of it after months of intense bombardment.
Phase two: Its precise outlines are to be negotiated during the first six weeks. If an agreement is reached, the fighting must stop permanently, the Israeli army must withdraw and all living hostages still held in Gaza must return home, according to the American president. Qatar, one of the mediating countries, has focused its efforts on ending hostilities, while Egypt has become more involved in the prisoner exchange, according to officials familiar with the discussions.
Third phase: in addition to the restitution of hostage remains, this involves a vast plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, with the support of the United States. According to diplomats, the Gulf States would play a key role in this.
And why restart the discussions now?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says nothing will stop Israel from achieving its goal of eradicating Hamas and freeing the hostages. But he faces growing domestic and international pressure, including from his closest ally the United States, over the human, material and humanitarian cost of the conflict.
In addition, a first truce, between November 24 and December 1, resulted in the release of 240 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 105 hostages, including 80 Israelis. Of the 251 people kidnapped on October 7, 116 are still being held in Gaza (42 are dead), according to the Israeli army. The timing of the discussions finally seems right, as all the parties involved in the negotiations are on the ground: the head of the Israeli Mossad (Israeli special services), David Barnea, is returning to Doha this week and the head of the internal security service (Shin Bet) has gone to Cairo. William Burns, head of the American CIA, is visiting both capitals.
Is this a real step forward, a real hope?
Hamas is keen to secure a full and permanent ceasefire. And one official said Sunday that the organization is willing to negotiate over the hostages in the absence of a permanent ceasefire. So it must not miss the boat. Knowing that simply starting talks is a step forward. “Given the hatred and mistrust between the (two) sides, the main challenge will be to get them back into the talks,” agreed a diplomat familiar with the mediation. There are “no guarantees” at this stage, he said.
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However, according to a Palestinian official who is also familiar with the discussions, many differences persist, including the fact that Israel has “vetoed the release of 100 heavily sentenced Palestinian prisoners,” including “a number of senior leaders” of armed groups. Finally, let us recall that Hamas believes that Israel is torpedoing efforts for a ceasefire with its latest offensive in Gaza City. The “massacres” in Gaza could “bring the negotiations back to square one,” he warned.