EThings have to move quickly now. Hectic negotiations have been going on behind the scenes for days. It’s all about power and positions. The most important man pulling the strings in the fray is Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His country took over the presidency of the 27 EU states for six months on July 1, but Orbán would rather focus on other things at the moment: such as the formation of a new radical right-wing populist faction in the EU Parliament.
If Orbán’s plans work out, the new grouping could become the third strongest faction in the Strasbourg Chamber of Deputies after the European Christian Democrats (EPP) and the Socialists – only in fourth place would another right-wing populist faction called the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and – far behind – the Liberals follow. It would be the beginning of a new tectonics of power in the EU Parliament.
If Orbán’s plan works, the new group called “Patriots for Europe” could claim the most important committees in Parliament after the EPP and the Socialists, and it would also appoint at least one, but probably several, of the 14 Vice-Presidents of the EU Parliament.
In addition, the new group would have considerable weight in the so-called Conference of Presidents, in which the leaders of the individual parliamentary groups meet under the chairmanship of the President of Parliament. This conference is considered to be the real hub of Parliament: it determines the composition of the committees, the rules of procedure of the House of Representatives and numerous substantive issues. This circle would be a new center of power for Orbán.
But he has not yet reached his goal. On Sunday, Orbán, as head of the Hungarian Fidesz party, announced the formation of the new parliamentary group together with the chairman of the liberal populist ANO party in the Czech Republic, Andrej Babiš, and the head of the Freedom Party in Austria (FPÖ), Herbert Kickl. “Today is a historic day,” said Orbán. We will enter “a new era of European politics.” The basis of the new parliamentary group will be a so-called Patriotic Manifesto, which, according to Babiš, advocates “defending the sovereignty of countries, fighting illegal migration and revising the ‘Green Deal’.”
However, the manifesto explicitly omits the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. Orbán simply said that they wanted to work for “peace, security and development” instead of “war, migration and stagnation”. This is a clever move: the vague wording would also allow parties that clearly condemn the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine – unlike Babiš, Kickl and Orbán – to join. These include Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) in France or the Polish PiS. These two parties alone would bring the new “Patriots for Europe” alliance 50 more seats.
There are two important conditions for the formation of a group in the EU Parliament: it must have at least 23 members from seven different countries. The alliance currently has 24 members, but they only come from three countries. But who else will join? Orbán is currently running out of time. The new group must be in place by next week at the latest, because in two weeks the newly elected EU Parliament will meet for the first time. By then it must be clear which group will receive which committees. The stronger the new Orbán group would then be, the more influence it will gain.
What is certain is that the Italian Lega of Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini will join, as will the right-wing extremist Chega party, the third strongest political force in Portugal. Orbán is also currently holding talks with the Smer-SSD party of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico and with the Slovenian Democratic Party of former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša. The Freedom Party (PVV) of Dutch election winner Geert Wilders is also a candidate. All of these parties previously belonged to either the right-wing ‘Identity and Democracy’ (ID) faction, or to the Socialists or Liberals.
The new group should be formed soon. It would be a diverse group that would have one thing in common: the prospect of more influence and lucrative positions in the new EU Parliament.
Orbán’s open account
It is still unclear how Le Pen and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski will behave. But this question is crucial for Orbán. The power of the new faction depends largely on whether RN and PiS join it. Le Pen says she wants to wait and see how the French parliamentary elections next Sunday turn out. But it is quite possible that she will agree and then lead the new alliance together with Orbán.
On the other hand, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the party leader of the second right-wing populist group in the EU Parliament, the ECR – which is currently the third strongest force in the new EU Parliament with 83 members – is also courting Le Pen and Kaczynski. She is also luring them with influence and positions.
Meloni is now Orbán’s great opponent. It is a political tug-of-war between two alpha animals behind the scenes in Brussels. Both want sovereign nation states in Europe that give up as few powers as possible to Brussels, and both are committed to the issues of families, heterosexuality, religion and tradition. But there are also major differences: Meloni fully supports Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Russia and she is consistently committed to fighting corruption and – despite the controversial planned constitutional reform in Italy – to enforcing the rule of law.
For the centre parties, i.e. the EPP, Socialists and Liberals, who want to form an informal coalition again in the newly elected EU Parliament, a strong ECR under Meloni’s leadership would be much better than Orbán’s radical anti-party “Patriots for Europe”. Especially since Orbán still has an old score to settle with the EPP party and parliamentary group leader, Manfred Weber.
The Fidesz leader left the EPP after a long and bitter dispute in early 2021 and has been non-attached since then. This weakened Orbán’s influence in the EU Parliament enormously. He would now love to take revenge on Weber for this disgrace.
Orbán’s previous fate could now also threaten the AfD. It was recently expelled from the ID faction due to various incidents. “I can’t sugarcoat anything, it’s bitter: the ID faction has shown us the door,” said party leader Alice Weidel on Monday. She now hopes to find a home in the new Orbán faction as soon as possible – even though Weidel said on Tuesday for tactical reasons that joining the party is “not an option for the AfD at the moment.” A carefully frank formulation, because the AfD leader wants to at least maintain the appearance that she has the reins in this matter.
But Orbán is hesitating because he does not want to upset Marine Le Pen and Kaczynski, who are considered to be sharp critics of the AfD, too early. Both are more important to him than Weidel & Co. Weidel is now hoping for the support of FPÖ agitator Kickl, a close ally of the AfD leader. In the end, however, the AfD could remain without a parliamentary group, which would mean it would lose a lot of influence.