State parliaments will be elected in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in the autumn. The AfD could become the strongest force there. This brings new power options within reach for the party.
Björn Höcke as Prime Minister – so far this scenario is considered rather unlikely. But some in the Thuringian AfD are already dreaming of an absolute majority after the state elections in 2024.
AfD state and parliamentary group leader Höcke himself spoke at a state party conference in Pfiffelbach in November as if he could become head of government. There he said sentences like “If I then become Prime Minister…”, “my government” or “one of the first measures that we will implement in Thuringia with an AfD government…”.
While hundreds of thousands of people in Germany are taking to the streets against right-wing extremism, the AfD is planning to set up a shadow cabinet in Thuringia – with AfD people for possible ministerial posts. The state associations in Saxony and Thuringia are classified as definitely right-wing extremist by the constitutional protection offices there and are being monitored; the AfD in Brandenburg is a suspected case.
In all three countries, the party is in first place in surveys – with values in some cases over 30 percent. At first glance, the nationwide demonstrations do not seem to change this after the media company Correctiv made public a meeting of radical right-wingers in Potsdam, which was also attended by AfD politicians. According to an Infratest dimap survey, the AfD in Saxony achieved 35 percent even after the research was published – and would therefore be the strongest force. On the other hand, the SPD and the Greens have to worry about returning to the state parliament. In Thuringia, the Greens and the FDP could be thrown out – if both fail at the five percent hurdle, the absolute majority for the AfD in the state parliament would come closer.
“We will whistle back at the Office for the Protection of the Constitution”
At first glance, the AfD is still “very far” away from an absolute majority and therefore from the possibility of governing alone, says Erfurt political scientist André Brodocz. “But we have to take into account that in the end it comes down to half the seats in the state parliament.” In a Thuringian parliament with only four parties instead of six, the AfD could possibly get half of the seats with a good 40 percent. “That’s not completely ruled out,” said the expert. It also depends on whether a Wagenknecht party runs and gets into the state parliament. Former Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Hans-Georg Maaßen also wants to found a party with his Union of Values. It is therefore possible that in the end there will be more parties represented in the Erfurt state parliament, not fewer.
An AfD in government responsibility could appoint new courts or influence the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which is a department of the Interior Ministry in Brandenburg and Thuringia. “We will whistle back at the Office for the Protection of the Constitution,” said the AfD’s parliamentary director in the Brandenburg state parliament, Dennis Hohloch, recently.
But a lot can still change in seven months of the election campaign. Elections will take place on September 1st in Thuringia and Saxony, and three weeks later in Brandenburg. Survey results are not yet election results and are subject to uncertainty. In all three countries, the AfD could only come into government with an absolute majority because all other parties refuse to work together.
But even without government participation, new opportunities could open up for the AfD if the election results are good.
Examples from Thuringia:
Strongest force
If the AfD becomes the strongest force in Thuringia, it can, according to parliamentary practice, propose a candidate as President of the state parliament. If he fails in the election, parliament would not be able to function, at least for the time being – a possibly unique situation in Germany. If the AfD candidate were elected, however, he would be in charge of the prime minister election process. There is a hotly debated legal question in Thuringia: Is a candidate for prime minister elected in the third round with more no votes than yes votes if he runs alone? “The president of the state parliament would decide at this moment whether the election was successful or not,” explains Brodocz. The Constitutional Court could deal with it later. “But that would have to be decided at this very moment.”
Externally, the president represents the Thuringian state parliament “and thus all representatives who are elected by the people; he could claim to represent the people as a whole.” A state parliament president is also very autonomous in his decisions – for example when inviting state guests. “People could appear in the Thuringian state parliament that you might not have expected before,” says Brodocz.
Blocking minority
In the three eastern German states, the AfD could get more than a third of the seats in the respective state parliaments. For all votes that require a two-thirds majority, the parties would then have to rely on the goodwill of the AfD. The AfD in Thuringia knows this exactly: Höcke had already set the goal in May 2023 of achieving “33 plus X percent” in the state elections in Thuringia.
If the AfD manages to do that, it would have a powerful position in parliament in Thuringia, as an overview from the state parliament administration shows. The state parliament could then no longer dissolve in order to bring about a new election without AfD approval. The AfD could block the composition and thus the ability to work on committees and appoint judges and prosecutors. The election of a President of the Constitutional Court also requires a two-thirds majority.
Based on current surveys, Brodocz believes that the probability that the AfD will receive a blocking minority in Thuringia is high. Thuringia’s AfD co-leader Stefan Möller announced in November that he wanted to use this blocking option – for example to prevent anti-fascism as a state goal in the constitution, which the left is striving for. They don’t want a “GDR constitution,” said Möller.
The AfD could also prevent the appointment of a body to monitor the protection of the constitution – the parliamentary control commission – in Thuringia with a blocking minority. The influence of the AfD is considered particularly sensitive here because the party in Thuringia is itself monitored by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Majority procurer
None of the other parties elected to the state parliament in Thuringia want to actively work with the AfD. However, the CDU and FDP now accept the AfD as the majority source for their own motions or draft laws. Both parties emphasize that there are no agreements whatsoever. Because the situation in Thuringia is so complicated, many observers believe it is likely that a minority government will have to be formed again. According to this model, if this were led by the CDU, unspoken tolerance by the AfD is conceivable.
Möller, for example, already sees joint legal changes with the CDU and FDP as “shaping power” for the AfD. As an example, he cites the reduction in property transfer tax, a CDU initiative for which the AfD provided the necessary votes. When asked whether it is a good option for the AfD to obtain majorities – for example for a minority government of the CDU, SPD and FDP, Möller says: “Of course!” At the same time, however, he considers such a coalition to be “absurd” given the polls. “Then I’d rather dream of an absolute majority than something like that!” he says and laughs.