Parliamentary elections are taking place in Belgium at the same time as the European elections – and forming a government in this linguistically and politically divided country is likely to be difficult. A far-right party could become the strongest force.
When Belgium votes, dystopias are not far away, but the Belgians themselves celebrate them with a great deal of self-irony, without taking them too seriously in the end: the country will collapse at some point, they say in the country’s political talk shows, it can’t get any worse, and the formation of a government after the election this time will take even longer than in 2019 – after the last parliamentary election, when a new coalition government was found after just under 18 months. With seven parties under the leadership of the liberal Alexander de Croo, this is still in office today.
In the past, all parties attributed the difficulties in forming stable governments to the complicated status of the country with 11.5 million inhabitants and three regions – Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels – which are much more independent than German federal states. But that is only half the truth – because Belgium and its three regions have successfully managed to balance the most diverse linguistic and administrative interests in such a way that the country functions well.
The current head of government, de Croo – here voting – could lose his office after the election.
Four parliaments, three languages, two dozen parties
Most Belgians, whether from Dutch-speaking Flanders or French-speaking Wallonia, are proud of their diversity. Although a unified party landscape is only slowly developing, all important political tendencies can be found in all regions. However, it is not easy to find orientation with four parliaments, three languages and more than two dozen parties when the party landscape follows the state structure but does not provide a common roof.
The election campaign was wild and colorful. In the election arena on Belgian television, the liberal head of government de Croo and his challengers took questions from the audience. One of them was: Which of your competitors would you vote for if your own party didn’t exist? The tortured and laborious struggle for no answer amused the whole of Belgium. The same goes for the newest party creation, “Blanco,” which advertises that it can be used to vote for “empty seats” in the National Council.
“Party landscape is a labyrinth”
“The Belgian party landscape is a labyrinth,” explains Antwerp political science professor Dave Sinardet. Political statements during the election campaign should not be taken too seriously – “later they are often forgotten or twisted.” On the Belgian broadcaster “VRT” he recalled the saying of the former German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer: “What do I care about what I said yesterday?”
All Belgians can have a great time laughing at what foreign countries make of them. Sinardet likes to show his students a botched infographic from a French broadcaster that is supposed to represent Belgium: Flanders and Wallonia were swapped on the map and Brussels was not where it should be: “You see, there is still a small detail in our state structure that our big neighbors have not yet fully understood.”
Right-wing populists can expect gains
Although Belgians stick together when in doubt, the country could be politically upside down after the election. Liberal Prime Minister de Croo could lose his office to Bart de Wever of the New Flemish Alliance – whom de Croo accuses of “not believing in Belgium” and who wants to withdraw funds from the financially less well-off Wallonia.
The strongest party could be the right-wing populist Vlaamse Belang (Flemish Interest), with whom no one has wanted to form a coalition so far. Even if that doesn’t stay the case, the moderate nationalists are more likely to have a chance of finding partners, especially since the Vlaamse Belang is hardly willing to compromise. The motto of their party leader Tom Van Grieken: “Flanders pays, Wallonia decides. This must stop.”
Tom Van Grieken’s party Vlaamse Belang can expect gains in the election.
Walloon political veteran Paul Magnette does not like to hear such tones. The socialist and his party are seen as the Walloon counterweight to those Flemish parties that want changes in the distribution of finances at the expense of Wallonia. The less than good economic outlook could ultimately strengthen both sides and polarize the party landscape. On the VRT broadcaster, the former president of the University of Leuven, Ric Torfs, explained that a government can only be stable if one side of the country does not feel like a supplicant and the other like a paymaster.
Moderate nationalist as future prime minister?
The New Flemish Alliance will definitely be politically influential at the federal level. The Walloon Socialists under Magnette can imagine being part of a coalition – but only if the moderate nationalists from Flanders keep their distance from the right-wing populist Vlaamse Belang.
The right-wing populists, on the other hand, will probably not be able to form a government with them, even if they become significantly stronger, given the division of the country. So far, they have been considered – like the AfD – not suitable for a coalition. The future Belgian Prime Minister could end up being a moderate nationalist: Bart de Wever from the New Flemish Alliance, who is forming a new coalition with other partners together with the Francophone Socialists.
Could de Croos’ successor be Bart de Wever from the New Flemish Alliance.
Something like this happened in 2014 under the opposite circumstances – with a socialist (Elio di Rupo) at the head of the government. At that time, de Wever came up short in the coalition. He could soon be at the helm of the country.
Andreas Meyer-Feist, ARD Brussels, tagesschau, 09.06.2024 14:24