Orpo will probably replace Marin: Finland’s calm change of power

The Conservatives have won the parliamentary elections in Finland and are likely to replace the Social Democrats led by Prime Minister Marin. The result was extremely close, and forming a government is likely to be difficult.

Bright blue skies over Helsinki on the morning after the election: Blue – that’s also the color of the election winners, blue heart balloons decorated the Conservatives’ election party. The National Coalition Party won the election by the narrowest of margins and 20.8 percent of the votes. Not even one percentage point separates them from the Social Democrats with 19.9 percent, who came in third place – and even less from the right-wing populist party The Finns, which got 20.1 percent. Finland is about to change power.

“That’s life – sometimes it goes politically to the right, then to the left again, and people look at how politics affects their lives,” says a passer-by. And a Finn says: “The challenges of recent years have meant that people want changes in all areas. That could explain the election result.”

Petteri Orpo must now find coalition partners

They are not very excited about this in Finland, because it had already become apparent that the current prime minister, Sanna Marin, might not make it. In all likelihood, she will now be replaced by Petteri Orpo. “A great victory. The Finnish people want change and they trust us. It’s a big deal, now the work begins,” said the Conservative leader after the election victory.

The first thing to do is find a majority – and that won’t be easy. The National Coalition Party has not ruled out or promised anything so far: Talks are being held with all parties, which is a tradition in Finland, according to Orpo.

“I speak to all parties, it’s a tradition”

An alliance with the right-wing populists The Finns have existed before. There are differences above all in the area of ​​migration. The conservatives want more immigration and thus bring more workers into the country, but the right-wing populists don’t see it that way. There are also differences in attitudes towards the EU. The Finns party is very nationalistic and critical of the EU.

There is also disagreement with the Social Democrats – above all over tax policy and the fact that the Conservatives want to cut social benefits. According to Orpo, the focus must now be on liberal economic policy. “The biggest change is in the economy. We need to boost growth and create balance,” he said. If you want to save the welfare state, the economy is crucial.

No grief among the Social Democrats

Even if there is a change of power in Finland – the Social Democrats do not see themselves as losing the election. Because they too have gained votes, emphasized Prime Minister Marin in the evening at the election party and was celebrated for it. It’s a stroke of luck for the Social Democrats, says journalist Pirjo Auvinen from the Finnish broadcaster Yle. Because without Marin, the party would have done significantly worse.

“The result of the Social Democrats is actually good, considering that they were in government. That doesn’t usually make the parties any stronger. But they did it, which is probably due to the Marin effect,” says Auvinen .

Negotiations will now take place in the coming weeks – who with whom and on what terms. Because at least three parties must be found for a majority government alliance.