Opposition in Poland: one alpha animal too many?

As President of the Council, the Pole Tusk was known throughout the EU. Now he is apparently returning to Warsaw as an opposition politician. A rival is already waiting there – and a common opponent: the PiS.

Donald Tusk played in a different political league for almost eight years and only commented on the little Polish from the sidelines. Sometimes the head of the European People’s Party and former EU Council President spoke up with derisive Twitter comments, which often sparked great excitement at home. Sometimes he gave smug interviews to the PiS-critical broadcaster TVN – where he hardly had to fear being asked hard.

But it is now abundantly clear that the Gdansk man is really warming up for a possible return to national politics. He also gave a first signal to TVN at the beginning of June when he said he was ready “to do everything possible to prevent the ‘Citizens Platform’ (PO) from becoming a thing of the past”.

Tusk is honorary chairman of the party with which he drove the first Kaczynski government from power in 2007. But the many scandals from his time as Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014 and an often criticized programmatic void afflicted what was once the largest Polish opposition party. In surveys, it recently fell in third place behind the newly founded “Poland 2050” by the former TV entertainer Szymon Holownia, who appeals to a similar right-wing liberal audience, but appears more modern and vital.

Rivals in close contact

Perhaps more modern, at least a generation younger than 64-year-old Tusk, is the Warsaw mayor and long-time PO politician Trzaskowski at 49 years old. His own ambitions for the role of leader of the Polish opposition were put on record this Wednesday when he said in an interview that he was ready to take responsibility should the current PO chief Borys Budka step down.

On Thursday, Tusk and Trzaskowski, who are each considered to be a power-conscious “alpha male”, met for a first hour-long but fruitless conversation with Budka, according to media reports. Afterwards, journalists found Tusk in Warsaw city center over a glass of wine. Trzaskowski had previously indicated that he himself did not know what exactly Tusk was up to until the very end.

Trzaskowski would have cause for anger: He can see himself in the role of the one who has done the dirty work all these years. In the mud battle of the runoff election for the presidency, he scored a respectable success against incumbent Andrzej Duda. And the office of mayor of Warsaw, shaped by several major accidents in the sewage network, is not always pure pleasure.

Meanwhile, Tusk was having a good time in distant Brussels, but now, when the polls of the PiS party have fallen, he suddenly returns and seems to take for granted: the boss, that’s him.

Who will take the lead?

TVN at least elicited Trzaskowski these days, Tusk’s return meant “added value” for the party. On the question of whether he would also accept a party leader Tusk, he did not comment. But with a view to the recent presidential election campaign, he emphasized: “I am a completely independent politician who was not backed by a Kaczynski or a Tusk as was behind Duda. But if Tusk returns now, we have to find an agreement together in order to leverage synergies . ”

But is someone who was high up in Europe now ready to play one of many violins in Poland? In the PO, Tusk has advocates, but also opponents.

Trzaskowski, on the other hand, is convinced that you cannot win elections without a tried and tested party apparatus. But he also knows that his party is still very unpopular – also because of the Tusk era. So he continues to try to distinguish himself as the non-partisan father of all Warsaw residents and seeks the closeness of other city hall bosses who are popular in the country.

Trzaskowski conjures unity of the opposition

All sorts of initiatives beyond the party structures, such as the “Common Poland” movement, with which he seeks connection to civil society, could also become the nucleus for something of his own should it break. However, Trzaskowski constantly emphasizes the need for “unity” not only in the party, but in the opposition as a whole. With joint electoral lists, for which he speaks out, it has already been possible, albeit narrowly, to get a majority against PiS up in the upper house (Senate). What Tusk thinks about any of this is unknown.

The staff wrangling in the PO robs the PiS party a little of the attention. She actually wants to get out of the Corona-related survey valley again with her “Polish deal”, a large money redistribution program. According to surveys, PiS is still by far the largest single political force in Poland, but together with its two parliamentary party partners, it would currently have to fear for an absolute majority. In addition, the ruling faction recently lost its majority in the Sejm due to the departure of several MPs. However, parliamentary cooperation with the smaller right-wing party “Kukiz 15” has been agreed.

PiS also wants to redefine its party leadership this weekend, but unlike its eternal rival PO, the boss question has been resolved. There is no doubt about Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s re-election. However, there could also be a generation change in the ranks of his deputies if Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki rises to one of Kaczynski’s deputies. Polish media also report on planned, far-reaching structural reforms of the PiS at regional level. However, the PiS party congress takes place behind closed doors.