Opposition coalition – yes, no, maybe – Bavaria

The Bavarian Greens are hoping for a tailwind from the Ampel-Coalition in Berlin for a change of government in the state elections in 2023. The year will start with changed framework conditions and a new political majority – “and that will soon also be in Bavaria,” said party leader Eva Lettenbauer zum The regional association starts the year on Wednesday. Her co-chairman, Thomas von Sarnowski, also sees “the omens in Bavaria have changed” since the federal elections, so that there is “a majority in our society for progressive politics”. On the one hand, the CSU could “go on the opposition bench” in the federal government, on the other hand it was now clearly a “regional party”.

This year the Greens want to start a process for a “government program”. Regarding the top candidacy – the question of who will challenge Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) – “presumably” no decision will be made this year. Of the leaders in the parliamentary group and party – Ludwig Hartmann, Katharina Schulze, Lettenbauer and Sarnowski – only Hartmann would have reached the age of 40 in autumn 2023 and, according to the constitution, could even become head of government.

The fact that the Greens only ended up in second place behind the SPD in the federal elections in the Free State and most recently in polls is apparently interpreted as a snapshot. His party was already the second strongest force in previous elections, “unfortunately not” in September, said Sarnowski. The state association is in a completely different starting position than five years ago, when the result “was historic” (17.6 percent in the state elections). The number of members is close to the 20,000 mark, and within three years there has been an increase of over 200 local associations.

“We are making great strides in gaining strength and organizing ourselves all over Bavaria,” said Sarnowski. And with a view to 2023: “We are fighting for every percent.” The next “Bavarian trend” can be eagerly awaited in the coming weeks, the survey on behalf of the Bavarian Broadcasting Corporation. At a quick glance, the general election was also a success: the party achieved 14.1 percent in the Free State, plus 4.3 percentage points. However, when the election campaign kicked off in 2021, there were still values ​​of up to 25 percent in surveys, in the end the SPD was ahead – and there were electoral districts in which the Greens hardly received any approval, such as Deggendorf (6.7 percent) or Straubing ( 6.8).

The question remains whether there could be some kind of coalition of the opposition in Bavaria; if you exclude the AfD, the traffic light partners ultimately counterbalance the CSU and free voters in the state parliament. This question has been asked in political Munich for weeks, answer: yes, no, maybe. SPD leader Florian von Brunn had recently spoken of the fact that the traffic light could be a “role model” for Bavaria, the focus of the three parliamentary groups resulted in “a good division of labor” and the relationship was completely unproblematic. FDP leader Martin Hagen, on the other hand, did not want to locate his liberals “in a traffic light camp”, even if they sometimes work well together (for example in the U-Committee mask affair). Eva Lettenbauer tends to say yes and no: “There is no coalition in the opposition, that still applies to us Greens.” But: Your party stands for a “policy in line with the times” – also with “those who go along this path”.

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