One week before the results of the European elections, one in three voters say they can change their mind. The safest in their choice are those of the RN (85% say they are certain) followed by those of Renaissance (79%) and LFI (73%).
Seven days before the results of the polls, the National Rally is marking time (very slightly). The list led by Jordan Bardella nevertheless remains well ahead of voting intentions, according to a new Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Sunday unveiled this Saturday, June 1.
The National Rally received 32.5% of the votes, a very slight drop of 0.5 points compared to the previous week. Far behind, the Renaissance list led by Valérie Hayer, grabs 0.5 points to reach the 16% mark. Status quo for Raphaël Glucksmann’s PS which is stagnating at 13%.
Note that the left bloc progresses by 2.5 points in total. The La France Insoumise (LFI) list, led by Manon Aubry, collected 8.5% of voting intentions (+0.5). That of Europe Ecologie Les Verts (EELV) of Marie Toussaint 7% (+1) and that of the communist Léon Deffontaines 3% (+1). Conversely, the LR list of François Xavier Bellamy is credited with 6.5%, down slightly (-0.5). Same story for the Reconquest list with Marion Maréchal who receives 5% of voting intentions (-0.5).
Volatile electorate
With only a week to go before the vote, many voters are not yet sure of their choice, or even of going to the polls. According to our survey, 46% of those registered on the electoral lists say they will vote with certainty (up 4 points), while 13% are seriously considering casting a ballot on June 9 (-2 points).
In 2019, participation in the European elections in France was 50.1%. At the level of the entire 28-country European Union, this rate reached 51.0%, according to the data of the European Parliament.
Among voters, one in three say they can still change their mind about their vote. 12% of potential voters even say that they will make their decision the day before or the same day. The voters most sure of their choice are those of the RN (85% say they are certain) followed by Renaissance (79%) and LFI (73%). The electorates of EELV (49% unsure), LR (42% unsure), and PS (38% unsure) are more volatile.
Sample of 1,804 people, representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,688 registered on the electoral lists. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, profession, region and category of agglomeration. Internet survey from May 24 to 25, 2024.