Number of operational nuclear weapons is growing – peace researchers warn

Nuclear deterrence
Peace researchers warn: more and more nuclear warheads ready for use

In view of numerous international conflicts, the nuclear powers are increasingly relying on nuclear deterrence. The number of operational nuclear warheads is continuously increasing, according to the annual report published on Monday by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Although decommissioned warheads are being dismantled and the global number of Nuclear weapons have been declining for decades. At the same time, however, more and more warheads are being kept operational.

The number of nuclear weapons under development has also increased, according to Sipri, as states increasingly rely on nuclear deterrence. Of the total global stock of an estimated 12,121 warheads in January 2024, around 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Around 3,904 of these warheads were mounted on missiles and aircraft – 60 more than in January 2023. The rest were in central warehouses, according to the report.

USA and Russia dominate in nuclear weapons stockpile

According to the institute, a total of nine countries have nuclear weapons. The USA and Russia are the leaders. They have around 90 percent of all nuclear warheads. Great Britain ranks third, followed by France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. Germany does not have such weapons.

In addition to their military stockpiles, Russia and the United States each have more than 1,200 warheads that were previously removed from the military arsenal and are being gradually dismantled.

“While the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are gradually phased out, the number of operational nuclear warheads unfortunately continues to rise year on year,” said Sipri director Dan Smith in the report. Peace researchers expect the trend to continue and accelerate, which is “extremely worrying.”

China also on high alert for the first time

About 2,100 of the warheads deployed were kept on high alert on ballistic missiles, it was said. Almost all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA. For the first time, however, China is also said to be keeping some warheads on high alert.

The country’s total nuclear weapons arsenal rose from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. “China is expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal faster than any other country,” said Sipri expert Hans Kristensen. But all nuclear-armed states without exception have aspirations to further increase their stocks.

Impact on international relations

But nobody really wants to reveal their cards. Transparency regarding the nuclear forces of the two leading countries has decreased since the start of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine in February 2022, complain the Sipri experts. Transparency has also declined in the other countries. On the other hand, the debate about agreements on the joint use of nuclear weapons has gained in importance.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons play such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” said Wilfred Wan, head of the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction programme.

Diplomacy suffers from Russian behavior

Nuclear diplomacy has suffered several setbacks since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin suspended the New Start disarmament treaty – the last major nuclear disarmament treaty with the United States – in February 2023. This treaty limits the nuclear weapons arsenals of both countries and regulates inspections. Talks on a successor agreement to the treaty, which expires in 2026, have also been put on hold.

In November 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing an “imbalance” with the United States, which had not ratified the treaty since it was opened for signature in 1996. Most recently, Russia announced tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the Ukrainian border in May 2024.

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DPA