North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-un did not need a New Year’s speech this year. He had already given a long speech at the end of the six-day Labor Party General Assembly on New Year’s Eve. And according to the state news agency KCNA, he had declared sufficiently clearly that the world could also expect a North Korea in 2023 that wants to upgrade. He wants to “exponentially increase” the production of nuclear weapons, said Kim Jong-un. He announced a new ICBM system with “rapid nuclear counter-attack capability” and the national space agency’s first military reconnaissance satellite “coming soon”. The day before, Kim had said North Korea’s military must improve its “preparations for mobilization for war” in 2023.
So the North Korean conflict will not get any better in the new year. No wonder, really, because the liberal alliance partners South Korea, Japan and the USA have not exactly given the impression in the past few months that they want to compromise with North Korea’s authoritarian government for the sake of peace. Kim Jong-un sells his commitment to rearmament in response to South Korean-US military moves.
Right from the start, his regime fired so many test rockets into the seas around the Korean peninsula in 2022 that the Americans and South Koreans had no choice but to test their defenses in comprehensive military exercises and to better protect the south against possible attacks. And in the New Year, North Korea continues to fire: South Korea’s military reported on Sunday that a short-range missile from Pyongyang had crashed into the East Sea very early in the morning after a flight of about 400 kilometers.
Japan is tightening its security strategy
But it is also true that the conservative governments in Seoul and Tokyo are now giving Kim Jong-un an alibi that he can use for his propaganda. South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk-jeol, in office since May 2022, is focusing his North Korea policy primarily on deterrence. At best, he wants to get closer on his own terms. In his so-called “bold initiative,” Yoon offers livelihood aid to the people of North Korea in exchange for unconditional denuclearization talks.
For Kim Jong-un, this comes across as a call to submission. The dialogue between the two Koreas therefore seems impossible. “We hate Yoon Suk-yeol,” Kim Jong-un’s sister and propaganda officer Kim Yo-jong responded to Yoon’s plan in August. In his New Year’s Eve speech, Kim Jong-un called South Korea the “undoubted enemy”. Under Yoon’s predecessor, the liberal, even-minded Moon Jae-in, the mood was less hostile.
Japan, on the other hand, tightened its security strategy so much in December that critics suspected a violation of the pacifist constitution. Japan’s defense budget is expected to increase from 1% to 2% of gross domestic product by 2027. In addition, national defense will function in the future with the ability to carry out a pre-emptive strike. This so-called counter-strike capability provides that Japan can shoot at the enemy when they are preparing an attack. Reason: China’s ambitions, but also explicitly the North Korean armament. The US applauded the new direction.
For the time being, no expert is expecting aggression from the regime in North Korea
North Korea also repeatedly declares that its weapons are only used for national defense. Kim Jong-un thus protects his autocracy. In fact, for the time being, no expert is expecting the regime to be aggressive. Especially since Kim Jong-un was probably not completely unimpressed by the latest warnings from the South and Far West. South Korea and US intelligence expect Pyongyang to conduct an underground nuclear weapons test in 2022. Such would advance North Korea’s nuclear weapons technology. But the test didn’t come.
Maybe 2023? In any case, North Korea’s foreign policy is not initially geared towards peace with its sister state. And Kim Jong-un also keeps an eye on the inside to keep the military under control. Personnel changes in party structures maintain loyalty to his dynasty in Kim’s world. This is probably why the formerly praised Pak Jong-chon, Marshal of the People’s Army and member of the Presidium of the Politburo, is being transferred again. Former Defense Minister Ri Yong-gil replaces Pak as party secretary for military operations and vice chief of the Central Military Commission. Kim Jong-un seems to have his officials under control.