New protests: Cuba’s leadership in a quandary

The protest in Cuba is fueled by multiple dissatisfaction, says Latin America expert Hoffmann. There is a lack of food, medicines and economic prospects. This makes it difficult for management to offer quick solutions.

tagesschau.de: Thousands of Cubans took to the streets at the weekend to demonstrate against the living conditions on the island. Apparently there were again demonstrations – albeit smaller ones – on Monday. What sparked the protest?

Bert Hoffmann: It is sparked by a severe economic crisis. The supply situation has become precarious, everything is scarce. Not only do people have to queue a lot, they also worry about where to find something to put on the dinner table in the evening. There are also power outages or a lack of medication. But what is decisive is the lack of food – and the lack of perspective as to when and how the situation can improve. In addition, there is the pandemic with increasing numbers of infections and the loss of confidence in the political leadership.

tagesschau.de: Shortage economy is nothing new in Cuba. What has changed that people are now taking to the streets?

Hoffmann: The economic situation was much more relaxed two years ago. But then the pandemic brought tourism and thus the most important economic sector on the island to almost zero. The second thing that affects families is that the previous US President Donald Trump has practically forbidden transfers of relatives in the US to Cuba. More than 400 Western Union offices in Cuba had to close. The two most important foreign exchange earners have thus suffered a massive collapse. This creates a very different situation from the usual problems of Cuba’s socialist economy.

Hope through their own vaccine

tagesschau.de: Cuba has always been proud of its health system and has even sent many doctors abroad. How badly did Corona hit the country?

Hoffmann: Health care is still ubiquitous, but a lot is lacking – especially things that need to be imported. Cuba has a large production of medicines, but it depends on preliminary products that have to be imported. But what is really sensational: Cuba has developed two vaccines against Covid-19, both of which are highly effective – no other Latin American country has managed that. These vaccines are now being widely administered, so the majority of the population should be vaccinated by the end of the year. This is linked to the hope of more economic normality and a return of tourism. But until then, the population will have tough months ahead of them.

tagesschau.de: What distinguishes the demonstrators?

Hoffmann: The special thing is that there are protests at all – Cuba hardly knows that, demonstrations against the government are not allowed. The last widespread protests were in 1994. The demonstrators represent a cross-section of the population, but certainly more young people than old people. The majority of the population is otherwise passive, may not want to risk anything or is undecided. Unlike in the past, images of protests spread across the country immediately on social media. A small protest in a small town is immediately seen across the country and is imitated. Young Cubans in particular use Facebook and WhatsApp, and the costs are often paid for by relatives abroad.

Leadership with little charisma

tagesschau.de: Recently, the era of the Castro family officially came to an end, with Raul Castro resigning as chairman of the Communist Party to President Miguel Diaz-Canel. Does that also play a role?

Hoffmann: The leadership of the country has managed to organize the transition from Fidel to Raúl Castro and from Raúl to Díaz-Canel with the greatest of noiselessness and no visible breaks. The elite remained closed, and that provided stability. The price was that all difficult reforms were postponed – and that the new leadership was not given any space to develop its own profile and to develop its own support. Loyal, uncharismatic cadres were elected who cannot pose a threat to anyone in the leadership. But they are also perceived as weak by the population. The historical generation left during their lifetime, but has left a framework for their successors in which they can hardly be successful.

tagesschau.de: Does that explain the sharp tone that Diaz-Canel used? He said that anyone who wanted to defeat the “revolution” had to walk over dead bodies – that sounds like a threat and not a willingness to enter into dialogue.

Hoffmann: There is this martial rhetoric, but the discourse is ambivalent. He also said that not all protesters are enemies, that he understands the concerns of the people, that the party will take care of the problems. He drove to the place where the protests began and spoke to people there. He’s not bunkering; on the one hand he threatens, on the other he shows understanding. Whether that will be successful is another question.

Skepticism about promises

tagesschau.de: What can he offer the discontented in the country?

Hoffmann: Little – that is exactly the problem. He can offer hope that things will get better when everyone is vaccinated. That is far away for many. If you are in a precarious situation, five or six months are very long – and even then tourism will only slowly start up again. He promises to continue the reform process so that agriculture will produce more food. But that has been the case for many years, and little has improved. So there is great skepticism – in the population, who have heard many promises, but also within the party, because some fear a loss of control with liberalization. And market reforms do indeed lead to more inequality. For example, if you were to give up the ration card system, which is economically inefficient – without these allocations, the situation for the lower third of the population would be much more difficult than it already is. This is a real dilemma, and not just cynicism and stubbornness. The reformists also know that there is no easy solution. Ultimately, the leadership can also present itself as having no alternative á la: “If the USA and exile take over the country, everything will get worse.”

tagesschau.de: The USA had tightened the sanctions against Cuba under ex-President Trump, Joe Biden in turn stands for the more liberal course of the Obama era. Can the Cubans hope for a change of course here?

Hoffmann: So far there have been no relevant changes. Biden has made it clear that he will not become “Obama 2” in Cuban politics. However, it is in the room to allow the money transfers again. This not only affects Cuba, but also US citizens, who are forbidden to decide for themselves whether they want to send money to their relatives. In these times in particular, that would also be a humanitarian gesture. It would help many Cubans, but also the economy as a whole, because it would bring money back into the country. And on this issue the Cuban-Americans are themselves divided: as much as they may be political opponents of the government, the family ties to the relatives on the island, which one wants to support in case of need, are just as important.

The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de