The scores achieved by the smaller parties could prevent the former prime minister from forming a government.
The former prime minister’s Likud party Benjamin Netanyahu came in first in the Israeli legislative elections on Tuesday, but uncertainty remains over its ability to form a government with its allies from religious parties and the far right, according to exit polls.
According to these polls carried out by three major Israeli channels, Netanyahu’s party is credited with 30 or 31 seats, out of the 120 in Parliament, ahead of the Yesh Atid party of outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid, which would collect between 22 and 24 seats. This is followed by nine parties, including the far-right “Religious Zionism” alliance of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir with 14 seats, and the center-right party of ex-army chief Benny Gantz, credited from 11 to 13 seats. Together with its allies, Netanyahu’s Likud would have 61 or 62 seats, securing a majority. But these scores could still change when the official results are announced, in particular depending on the seats won by the smaller parties.
“I have experience, I have done some elections, we have to wait for the final results but our path, that of Likud, has proven to be the right one, we are close to a great victory”Netanyahu told his supporters gathered in Jerusalem on Tuesday evening. “If the results are in line with tonight’s polls, I will form a national government for all citizens of Israel”he added. “As long as the last ballot is not counted, nothing is decided. We will wait patiently, even if we have no patience, for the final results”he however tempered.
The score of the Arab parties will be decisive
In the Israeli proportional system, an electoral list must obtain at least 3.25% of the votes to enter Parliament with a minimum of four seats, a particularly critical situation for the parties of the Israeli Arab minority. In 2020, Arab parties, hostile to Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc, won a record 15 seats after a vigorous campaign under one banner. But this time, they presented themselves in dispersed order under three lists: Raam, Hadash-Taal (secular) and Balad (nationalist). According to exit polls, the Raam and Hadash-Taal parties should pass 3.25%, while the Balad party is flirting with this minimum. If it reached it, it would remove seats from Netanyahu’s “right bloc” with the risk for the latter of not being able to form a government.
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“Although exit polls indicate a trend, it is important to note that there have been lags between exit polls and actual results in recent election cycles.Yohanan Plesner, director of the Israel Democratic Institute, an analytical center in Jerusalem, told AFP.
Strong turnout
Israelis rushed to polling stations for their fifth legislative elections in the space of three and a half years, against the backdrop of Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of corruption by the courts, who wants to sign his big return to business. The political class has during the day multiplied the calls to the 6.8 million registered voters, which seems to have borne fruit. By 8:00 p.m. (6:00 p.m. GMT), two hours before the polls closed, 66.3 percent of voters had voted, the highest rate at the same time since 1999, according to the electoral commission.
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Faced with Netanyahu’s “right bloc”, Yaïr Lapid, 58, leader of the Yesh Atid (“There is a future”) party and leader of a coalition unique in the history of Israel because it brings together left-wing formations , from the center, from the right and an Arab party, was trying to convince that the course given in recent months should be maintained. Her “change coalition“had ousted Benjamin Netanyahu from power in June 2021 before losing his parliamentary majority a year later, precipitating this fifth ballot since the spring of 2019.
“Rise of extremism and racism”
This election took place in a climate of renewed violence in the West Bank, Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967, where the Israeli forces have multiplied their operations in recent months in the wake of deadly anti-Israeli attacks. Israeli operations have killed more than 120 Palestinians, the heaviest toll in seven years.
The results of the legislative elections in Israel bear witness to a “rise of extremism and racismin Israeli society, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh reacted on Wednesday after the release of polls showing a jump in far-right votes. “The advance of far-right religious parties in the Israeli elections (…) testifies to the rise of extremism and racism in Israeli society and from which our people have suffered for yearsShtayyeh said in a statement from Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority.