Moldova and Transnistria: “The gateway to Europe for Russia”

In the Republic of Moldova, there is growing concern that the war could come from neighboring Ukraine – for example through Transnistria, which was annexed by Russia. Government and citizens rely on soft tones, refugees and cultural institutions on activism.

“A requiem for Bucha” reads the poster that is being put up in front of the National Theater in Moldova’s capital, Chisinau. It advertises a memorial event by Ukrainian, Moldovan and Romanian poets to commemorate the atrocities of the Russian war against Ukraine. On May 9 of all days, the day of the victory over Nazi Germany.

It sounds like a clear statement from the cultural scene of this country, in which so many different languages ​​are at home – but the country is quite divided in its attitude to the war, which is raging not far away: Chinsinau is just 180 kilometers from Odessa.

On the square in front of the National Theater, older men are playing chess, but they’re not very talkative. The war in the neighboring country? A topic, of course, but not one that you want to talk about publicly, especially not with a German television crew. “Go away! We want to play here and not talk about Ukraine!” shouts a white-haired man in a baseball cap, bending over his chess pieces again. Most of the others also wave away.

Supporters protests for Ukraine

The over 70-year-old Valeriy then says: He can still remember the last war in Moldova well, when more than 1000 people died in the fight for the breakaway region of Transnistria, which had been ruled by pro-Russian separatists and so-called being controlled by Russian peacekeepers.

They don’t want to be drawn into this war with Ukraine, says Valeriy: “I pray to God that this war doesn’t come to Moldova.” Many would now see the country’s neutrality in danger. That’s why it’s better to be silent.

Wake up and persevere

A few blocks away, a couple of young people are demonstrating in front of the Russian embassy, ​​holding a Hitler-Putin placard and waving a Moldovan flag enthusiastically.

Irina and her friends fled to Moldova from the war in Ukraine. She’s here to wake people up, she says. So that everyone can see what Putin has planned in Europe: “I don’t think Russia will stop with Ukraine.”

Cars drive past them, honking their horns, the drivers wave from the windows. Lots of approval for the small group that has been demonstrating here every day since the beginning of March. They wanted to protest here until the war was finally over and Ukraine had won, says Irina – even though she knows it could take a long time.

“Victory for the entire democratic world”

The unrest has been growing since several explosions shook Transnistria at the end of April. Even if no one has claimed responsibility so far, many in the country suspect that Russia was behind the attacks. These are “specific Russian provocations by Moscow’s fifth column to stir up unrest,” says Oazu Nantoi, a member of parliament and one of the country’s leading political analysts.

He, too, believes: “Russia will not stop on the other side of the river” – and refuses to call this part of Moldova Transnistria. “You only have to look at the map to see what’s blooming in Moldova.” Nantoi says he hopes Ukraine will win because it is “a victory for the entire democratic world.”

“We are all related”

It sounds similar in the small towns on the banks of the Dniester, which marks the border to Transnistria. Russia wants to destabilize Moldova, says Victor Urito from Ustica. He is a history teacher and regularly commutes on his bicycle between the two parts of the country on both sides of the river.

He just did some shopping in Transnistria. “We don’t have an ethnic or religious conflict here. We’re all related,” says Urito. “And no matter what language we speak, whether Russian, Ukrainian or Romanian, we get along well.” It is politics that fuels this conflict – at the expense of the people. Even if he doesn’t specifically name Russia, it’s clear who he’s referring to.

Almost everyone here in Ustica heard the threats from Russian generals that Moldova could be one of Moscow’s next targets. “First they take Odessa, then Moldova and then they restore the old Soviet Union. Moldova is Russia’s gateway to Europe,” says Viktor’s friend Ciprian, expressing the fears of many who live in the country.

Does Moscow want to build a long corridor?

On the border with Ukraine in the east of the country, Odessa is just a stone’s throw away. Should Odessa fall, the way for the Russian army would not be far to Transnistria – then Russia could build a corridor from the Crimea via the Black Sea coast far into the south-west of Ukraine.

Not only in Moldova, many assume that Russia is pursuing precisely this strategy. This would mean that the small state, which does not have a functioning army, would be directly involved in the war and would hardly be able to defend itself against an overpowering Russian army.

The government is deliberately keeping a low profile

For this reason, too, the country’s pro-European government is keeping a low profile and apparently trying to avoid any statement that Russia could see as a provocation. Moldova’s Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu has made a clear commitment to his country’s desire to join the EU. When asked about the attacks in Transnistria, he answered rather evasively: “The war in Ukraine affects all of Europe, and Moldova is part of it.”

We are prepared for all threats, but he doesn’t believe that Moldova is under immediate threat now, even if nervousness is growing. “Our institutions are doing everything to prepare our country for the increasingly unstable situation.” One is dependent on the support of the EU.

Dependent on Russian gas

President Maja Sandu also emphasizes the importance of the EU for the Republic of Moldova: the country has been hit hard economically by the war because it has lost access to the markets in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, she said this week during a visit to the EU – Council President Charles Michel in Chisinau. In addition, 100 percent of gas imports come from Russia.

That is why they are counting on further opening up the European market for products from Moldova: “We have taken the path of European integration in order to strengthen security and democracy in this country,” said Sandu at the joint press conference – and then came when asked to speak of the attacks in Transnistria: These “incidents” are just as “worrying” as the recent threats by Russian generals to advance into Transnistria. That is why the war in Ukraine must be stopped urgently.

Refugees are afraid too

At the beginning of the war, thousands of people arrived daily at the border crossing in Palanca in the far east of the country. Today it’s still hundreds a day. No European country has taken in more refugees from Ukraine per capita than Moldova.

The tents in the refugee camp are now as good as empty, but preparations are being made for a new onslaught should Russia attack Odessa more massively than before. Fear is growing among the refugees – that’s why most of them want to move on to Romania, Germany or Italy as quickly as possible.

Irina stayed in Palanca with her 13-year-old son Ilya. A Moldovan family took her in. She wants to stay here for now because she feels closer to home here, she says. But she, too, is very worried: “Hopefully these are just empty threats that Moldova will be wiped out,” she says, adding: “I don’t hope that the people of Moldova will have to suffer what we have suffered. That would be real dreadful.”