On Monday, the anniversary of the Hamas terrorists’ attack on Israel, Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated the federal government’s stance: On the one hand, he assured Israel of Germany’s solidarity, an element that was evident in the first days and weeks after the attack on October 7th everything else predominated and remains the unshakable constant in relation to Israel to this day. “We feel with you the horror, the pain, the uncertainty and the sadness,” said the Chancellor. “We stand by your side.”
At the same time, he also said that a year of war had brought unimaginable suffering to the population in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians should be able to regulate their affairs on their own responsibility, warned Scholz – a reference to the two-state solution, which, from the Federal Government’s perspective, is still the only way that could lead to lasting peace in the Middle East. With a view to the escalation in Lebanon, he called on Hezbollah and Iran to stop attacks against Israel and spoke out in favor of a ceasefire – which in turn is also an appeal to Israel.
Berlin’s deliberative stance is criticized from many sides
The federal government has not only been trying to play a mediating role in the Middle East since October 7th – in previous years it also campaigned for a compromise between Israel and the Palestinians in a so-called cloverleaf format with France, Egypt and Jordan , when the issue was dealt with under “other” on the foreign policy agenda in Washington.
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock quickly formulated this political approach: one must see the suffering of people on all sides: the suffering of the families of the Israelis murdered and abducted by Hamas, the suffering of the Palestinian families in the Gaza Strip, the was largely destroyed by the Israeli armed forces, or now by the civilian population in Lebanon.
Berlin reaffirms Israel’s right to self-defense, especially in the north, where Hezbollah has been attacking with rockets every day since October 8, 2023 and more than 60,000 people have been driven from their hometowns. The Shiite militia, controlled, equipped and financed by the Revolutionary Guards in Iran, has long since started systematically destroying Israeli towns. The federal government is also encouraging Israel to uphold international humanitarian law in its military operations and to respect international law, for example in view of the violence perpetrated by radical settlers in the West Bank.
There is criticism of this deliberative stance from various directions: In view of Israel’s military superiority, more than 40,000 deaths in the Gaza Strip or the now massive bombing of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, criticism of Israel is far too reserved, argue pro-Palestinian and Arab voices . They often argue that Germany is taking a much stronger stance against Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure – which is often cited as evidence of double standards.
On the other hand, pro-Israel voices see abstentions from resolutions critical of Israel in the UN General Assembly or the Federal Government’s increasingly open criticism of Israel’s conduct of the war as a breach of the oft-quoted statement that Israel’s security is German raison d’être. Details from a confidential conversation with Baerbock were leaked from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s entourage, in which the Foreign Minister questioned the head of government’s descriptions of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.
A third line of criticism: Germany has achieved nothing with its deliberative stance. The federal government is hardly being heard in Israel, and at the same time Germany is losing reputation and influence in the Arab world and beyond in Muslim-dominated states.
There is no shortage of harsh condemnations of Israel in Europe either. However, it is not the case that Netanyahu would be impressed by accusations from Spain or, most recently, French President Emmanuel Macron – on the contrary. Macron’s initiative for a 21-day ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah came to nothing. Outraged, the Élysée now called for an arms embargo.
In crisis diplomacy, progress is often measured in millimeters
Berlin will not join this or other boycott demands for historical reasons, but also because it would deny itself room for maneuver. At the same time, the Federal Security Council has hardly approved any arms deliveries since the end of last year. There is also great frustration in the federal government that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not very open to good advice. However, he also ignores appeals from his most important ally by far, the government of US President Joe Biden – which has completely different means of pressure, but only uses them to a limited extent.
Baerbock said that progress in crisis diplomacy is often measured in millimeters. In the Middle East, Germany has made a significant contribution to alleviating the suffering of the people in the Gaza Strip; Germany is the second largest donor to the Palestinians and Baerbock personally took care of logistical issues that are not actually the responsibility of a foreign minister. Governments of moderate Arab states recognize this, even if, like Jordan recently, they criticize Berlin.
The format of five Western and five Arab states co-founded by Baerbock still offers the best hope of developing lasting and viable solutions for peace in the region. Saudi Arabia is sticking to the desired normalization of relations with Israel, as is the United Arab Emirates, which has already taken this step. However, whether this initiative will ultimately achieve its goal will hardly be decided before the presidential election in the USA.