Middle East Conflict: The Federal Government Between Powerlessness and Reasons of State – Politics

How the words are similar: “This is an attack that cannot be justified. This is a bad escalation of the situation and that is in no way acceptable, understandable or acceptable,” said Olaf Scholz in April after the first Iranian rocket attack on Israel. The Chancellor was currently in China and from there took part in a hastily arranged conference of the G7 states.

On Wednesday morning, the Federal Press Office distributed a statement from the Chancellor that sounded very similar. “The Iranian missile attacks on Israel should be condemned in the strongest possible terms. This threatens to further escalate the already tense situation in the Middle East,” it said. Iran risks setting the entire region on fire. “Hezbollah and Iran must immediately stop their attacks on Israel,” demanded Scholz.

Similar to April, Berlin’s reaction mixes powerlessness, helplessness and a fundamental problem. Repeatedly reiterated by Chancellor Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), the federal government feels obliged to assert that Israel’s security is Germany’s reason of state. Since Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel, however, it has been under pressure to show what that means in practical politics.

Netanyahu ignores advice

Unlike the USA, Germany is not making a significant military contribution to protecting Israel from attacks from Iran or the terrorist armies controlled from Iran. The Foreign Minister’s intensive diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip have so far led to little tangible success, and appeals for de-escalation in Lebanon have also gone unheard.

Internationally, Germany is now one of the few staunch supporters of Israel – but this has hardly led to a stronger influence on the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He often ignores advice from the White House, even when it is presented in concert with other Western allies.

“Together with our partners, we will continue to work to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah,” said Scholz on Wednesday. The Chancellor also spoke about this with French President Emmanuel Macron, who was in Berlin for a short visit and has taken a much tougher stance towards the government in Jerusalem.

Scholz also spoke about the Middle East conflict with French President Emmanuel Macron, who was in Berlin for a short visit. (Photo: Axel Schmidt/Getty Images)

Blame the conduct of the war in Gaza

Scholz tries to do the balancing act of leaving no doubt about German solidarity and Israel’s right to self-defense and yet criticizing the way Israel wages war, especially in Gaza. It is “clear that Israel must adhere to the rules of international law and protect civilians,” he said in March during his second visit to Israel since the terror of October 7th. The Chancellery and the Foreign Office play with distributed roles, but they do not indicate any disagreement.

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While the rockets were still falling on Israel, Foreign Minister Baerbock condemned the attack by the Islamic Republic “in the strongest possible terms” in the short message service X. Iran had been “strongly warned against this dangerous escalation,” she said; Tehran must stop its attacks immediately. The Foreign Office summoned the charge d’affaires of the Iranian embassy in Berlin.

During the day, Baerbock wanted to discuss further steps with her colleagues from the USA, France, Great Britain and Italy; This group, called Quint, has been speaking confidentially for months with the most important Arab states in order to develop common ideas about what will happen in the Gaza Strip after the fighting has ended and what a perspective for lasting peace in the region could look like.

Iran is pushing to restart nuclear negotiations

Baerbock had spoken to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the phone before the attack, and last week she met him in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly for a bilateral conversation. Araghchi as well as President Massoud Peseschkian had shown themselves open to rapprochement with the West and were pushing for nuclear negotiations to be resumed.

However, they had already received clear statements in New York that the nuclear dossier could not be viewed in isolation from the fact that the Revolutionary Guards were supplying missiles and drones for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. And also not about Iran’s behavior in the Middle East, where the regime from Yemen to Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon is using the militias it controls and is highly armed in a multi-front war against Israel.

Araghchi had Baerbock send a voice message via the Iranian embassy. In it, he reiterated the regime’s official line – a clear sign that the Foreign Ministry and the President are bowing to the hardliners from the security apparatus, who have been pushing for an attack from Israel at least since the killing of Hamas boss Ismail Haniya in Tehran at the end of July.

Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit reiterated that Hezbollah must withdraw from the border area with Israel behind the Litani River as stipulated in UN Resolution 1701 – but even that could no longer stop the advance of Israeli troops into southern Lebanon. There they are systematically attacking missile sites and weapons depots, many of which are hidden in civilian buildings and in tunnel networks.

The federal government has little choice but to continue to pressure the German nationals remaining in Lebanon and Iran to leave the country. The federal government’s crisis team met again on Wednesday morning. A Dutch military aircraft, part of a multinational NATO group, picked up more German nationals from Beirut.

After the crisis team meeting, it was said that the federal government was monitoring the situation very closely and reserved the right to take further measures, particularly to support German citizens at risk. So far, a total of 241 people have been flown out of Lebanon using Bundeswehr aircraft. Depending on needs and developments in the situation, further flights will be prepared.

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