Thomas Coutrot, an economist at Dares, racks his brains, but it doesn’t work: “To my memory, I have never seen a single right-wing government tax the richest more heavily.” Yet this is the proposal of Michel Barnier, a Gaullist since his teenage years – which, no offense, is starting to date – and the new Prime Minister. The new Matignon resident thus declared on France 2 on Sunday evening that he “does not rule out the possibility of the wealthiest people participating in the national effort” via “targeted levies” also targeting “certain large companies” in order to spare the majority of French people from a tax increase. A speech that is more reminiscent of a barbecue at the Fête de l’Huma than the philosophy of Jacques Chirac or Adam Smith.
Would the right now be pleading for more tax justice? “That would be a first,” Thomas Coutrot says ironically. He points out that even for the left, playing the role of Robin Hood of tax is not systematic. “Under François Hollande or Lionel Jospin as Prime Minister, numerous aids to businesses and economic gifts to the richest were voted.”
Taxing the rich: an impossible mission for the right?
This tax justice is all the more complex to envisage since President Macron himself has made tax cuts for everyone, including businesses and the rich, one of the economic pillars of his mandate. Gabriel Attal had asked for “guarantees” from his successor, refusing to leave Matignon without being certain that taxes for the middle classes would not be increased. The economist Thomas Piketty then showed himself to be scathing in the face of Michel Barnier’s speech: “He and Emmanuel Macron, or LR-Ensemble pour la République, have absolutely no credibility on the issue of tax justice.”
Between a Macronie that has made taxes the biggest economic taboo in the country “and Michel Barnier’s own political past”, Dominique Plihon, a specialist in tax policy, acknowledges a certain skepticism: “All the more so since the Prime Minister has been extremely vague. He does not explicitly talk about taxing the richest more, a category that he does not detail, moreover.” The Prime Minister indicated that he would spare “the French who work”, without specifying whether or not this term included large fortunes.
Lack of tangible measurement at the moment
Thomas Piketty also expects more just words : “If this government wants to re-establish tax justice, they urgently need to formulate precise and quantified proposals.” Dominique Plihon wants to believe “in measures, but for what effects other than symbolic ones?”
One of the only avenues officially mentioned at the moment is to deindex part of the income tax. This “would be an effective first step, but largely insufficient,” the expert continues. Another idea would be to tax “super profits” more. This avenue has been on the table for two years and represents one of the rare economic measures desired by both the National Rally and the New Popular Front. But here again, the concept remains vague.
More PR than taxes?
Dominique Plihon “finds it hard to imagine a total reversal of the Macronist philosophy.” And of the Barnierist philosophy? Sorry for our left-wing readers, but for the return of the wealth tax or the flat tax, we will probably have to wait for another round.
This first step taken on Sunday towards more tax justice “will probably only be communication, forced by the upcoming austerity budget”, predicts Thomas Coutrot. “The government cannot afford to only reduce public spending. Given its lack of democratic legitimacy, it would be extremely complicated not to tax the richest a little. It remains to be seen whether austerity is still 90% on public spending or in a more balanced way”.
Last, not very attractive attempt to believe it: what if the public accounts were so in the red that even the right were sincerely arguing for greater tax justice? “I have a hard time imagining it,” Dominique Plihon sweeps aside. “That LR voters would be in favor of more taxes, yes, no doubt. But France remains in the right’s imagination “the country with the most compulsory deductions,” which means that such a speech is not very audible.” Michel Barnier is probably more of a politician on a ridge than the new Zorro of taxes.