As of: November 8th, 2021, 4:35 p.m.
According to a media report, the federal, state and local governments are likely to earn around 160 billion euros more than originally expected by 2025. A possible red-green-yellow federal government could benefit from this.
A possible government coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP can hope for high tax revenues in the next few years. As the “Handelsblatt” reports, the federal, state and local governments are likely to earn around 160 billion euros more than originally expected by 2025. The sheet relied on a submission by the Federal Ministry of Finance for the new tax estimate, which is to be presented on Thursday.
The reasons for the now better outlook are the economic recovery after the Corona crisis and the recently significantly increased inflation. In 2021, the state will earn 29 billion euros more and in 2022 there could even be an increase of 33 billion in the books – in each case compared with the forecasts of the tax estimate from May, according to the media report.
Countries should benefit greatly
For the following years, too, additional income of a similar magnitude is expected. According to the information, the federal government will account for six to eight billion euros of the additional income in the current year and more than ten billion euros per year thereafter until 2025. The plus for the federal states will even be significantly greater, reported the news agency Reuters.
The figures from the estimate template are the basis for the tax assessment working group, which will advise on the revenue forecast in the coming days. The exact figures can still change, but the estimate submitted by the Ministry of Finance usually roughly corresponds to the later result.
Traffic light partners reckon with ten billion
For the emerging traffic light coalition, this means that their financial leeway for new projects will be somewhat greater. According to the “Handelsblatt”, the finance department of the SPD candidate for chancellor Olaf Scholz is assuming an additional ten to 15 billion euros per year. However, according to the ongoing coalition negotiations internally with additional income of around ten billion euros annually.
The Ampel partners want to invest significantly more and are therefore dependent on a good economy and high tax revenues. A coalition agreement between the three parties should be in place by the end of November, and Scholz could be elected Chancellor from December 6th. The Greens recently questioned this schedule. You insist on further measures for climate protection.
Later repayment of the corona debt?
Insiders reported to the Reuters news agency that a significantly higher level of new borrowing was recently discussed next year – for example, a one-time increase in the government’s energy and climate fund. The step could help to create scope for higher investments in the next few years and still comply with the debt brake anchored in the Basic Law from 2023.
According to the information, a later repayment of the corona debt is also under discussion. The first repayment could only take place in 2028 instead of 2023. In addition, the repayment period could be stretched from two to three decades – then run until 2058. In the budget, this would create additional headroom of two billion euros per year from 2023 and almost ten billion euros per year from 2026.
BDI for tax reform
The industry association BDI called for structural tax reforms in view of the budgetary situation that was still tight overall in the pandemic. “This is the only way to make more investments, grow the economy and generate new tax revenues that are necessary for consolidation,” said BDI lobbyist Joachim Lang. “The promise of the SPD, Greens and FDP to forego additional tax burdens is not enough.”