McKinsey study: an average of 40 packages per capita per year

Status: 11/24/2022 3:51 p.m

According to calculations, every German receives an average of 40 packages per year. The booming parcel market gave Deutsche Bahn and Deutsche Post the impetus to start a new parcel service.

Despite difficult economic prospects, the parcel market in Germany is booming. Mathematically, every German will receive 40 packages this year. In 2026, it is expected to be more than 50 parcels per citizen per year on average – a growth of 50 percent. This is the result of new calculations by the management consultancy McKinsey & Company. For comparison: in 2018 it was still an average of 24 packages.

The volume of parcels will overtake the number of letters in 2025

With annual growth rates of around 20 percent, 2020 and 2021 stood out in particular: Characterized by lockdowns and increased online shopping, the parcel market has almost doubled since then. Packages for private customers (B2C) were the biggest driver, but the business customer segment (B2B) also recovered quickly.

“Despite the positive growth rates in recent years, the coming months will initially be more difficult for logistics companies,” said Florian Neuhaus, partner in McKinsey’s Munich office. In view of the economic situation and inflation, many customers would postpone purchases that were not absolutely necessary.

This has a disproportionate effect on online trade and thus also has consequences for the short-term growth rates of parcel senders. According to Neuhaus, 57 percent of German consumers name price increases as their biggest concern. 69 percent expect prices to continue to rise over the next twelve months.

Forecast for logistics industry confident

According to the study, however, the long-term prospects remain good. While in 2005 arithmetically 13 letters were sent per parcel worldwide, the ratio in 2015 was only 4:1. According to the analysis, the two categories will converge in 2025: the number of parcels sent will then be equal to the number of letters.

“It is therefore still worthwhile for the logistics industry to invest in this booming market in the long term,” says logistics expert Neuhaus. This applies both to capacities and to additional workers.

Deutsche Bahn and DHL launch parcel service

Deutsche Post DHL is also responding to the parcel boom. In order for customers to be able to have their parcels delivered directly to a packing station in their vicinity, the company is launching a new parcel service together with Deutsche Bahn.

In the future, retailers will be able to deliver their items directly to Packstations in and at train stations. As part of the cooperation, around 800 additional DHL Packstations will be available at train stations throughout Germany. The majority of the machines are to be connected to the network before the end of this year.

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