Lula taking office: a turning point in Brazil?

The hope for a new era after four years of Bolsonaro is great – also abroad. But it won’t be easy for Brazil’s new President Lula. He inherits a divided country and a troubled household.

“For the defense of democracy,” says Simone Caoxeiro, packing a bright red T-shirt with Lula’s likeness into her red trolley suitcase, along with a rain cape and flags from the left-wing PSOL party and the teachers’ union to which she belongs. The next morning we set off from Nova Iguacu, a city near Rio de Janeiro, to the capital Brasilia. That’s almost 20 hours by bus, but that doesn’t deter Simone. She wants to be there when Luis Inácio Lula da Silva is put on the presidential sash on New Year’s Day.

“Every Reason to Celebrate”

300,000 supporters of the left-wing workers’ party PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores) are expected in Brasilia, and there will also be concerts by well-known artists, food stands and a huge folk festival. Simone’s husband Ulysses Peixoto alone organized three buses to Brasilia, all three are fully booked. “We want to go there, we want to celebrate, because after these four years we have every reason to do so,” says Ulysses.

Relief – she felt that when Lula was chosen, says Simone. Both are politically active and represent left-wing ideas. The strong woman with the long, black curls says that they have repeatedly received threats for their commitment in recent years. On election day, they worked as poll workers and were threatened with a gun by militias. “But we defeated Bolsonaro’s government. A government that was bad, that spread violence and hatred, that made alliances with militias, destroyed the state and proved that there is an extreme right in Brazil.”

Bolsonaro supporters do not recognize election results

A right that has repeatedly cast doubt on the electoral system in recent months and continues to speak of fraud, even if there is no evidence of it.

For weeks, supporters of outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro have been camping out in front of military installations and demanding that the armed forces intervene – including in front of the imposing Palacio Duque de Caxias, the military command east in Rio de Janeiro. There is now a kind of tent city, well equipped with chemical toilets, solid tarpaulins and a communal kitchen. Around 300 Bolsonaro supporters are waiting there, dressed in green and yellow, the national colors. They carry signs with inscriptions such as “SOS armed forces” or “National intervention now”.

“It is a war to defend the cause of God,” exclaims Sister Terezinha of the Missionaries of Salvation. “No to abortion, yes to freedom! Defeat communism and the devil, they must go to hell!” Sister Terezinha wears a robe and holds the rosary towards the camera.

Lula opponents speak of “coup against democracy”

The national media was silent about the protests, complains Samuel Rezende, a reserve lieutenant and digital influencer. He is wearing a black Bolsonaro T-shirt and is broadcasting the interview with the ARD to check live via Instagram: “What is happening here in Brazil is an attempted coup against our democracy,” says Rezende. “That’s why people are here on the streets, demonstrating in an orderly, peaceful way, because they believe in democracy.” He is convinced that all governments in Brazil, apart from Bolsonaro’s, are corrupt and rob the country – especially that Lula da Silva, who was never allowed to run.

In fact, massive corruption and enrichment had taken place in Lula’s previous government alliance, for which he never took political responsibility. Lula was also sentenced to 12 years in prison, the sentences against him were overturned by the Supreme Court in 2021. But the scandals have damaged his image as a politician, and millions of Brazilians deny his legitimacy. “My flag will never be red,” they sing in front of the Palacio Duque de Caxias.

Bomb finding causes excitement

“It’s very worrying, even if it’s a small group,” says security expert Juliano Cortinhas of the National University of Brasilia. “By allowing the protests to go ahead, the military indirectly shows its consent – these people are committing criminal acts, because they are propagating the dissolution of the democratic system.”

The discovery of a bomb during the Christmas days caused a stir. Brazilian police arrested a man who allegedly tried to detonate an explosive device in Brasilia. The arrested person is a radical Bolsonaro supporter. Police say he planned to cause chaos at Lula’s inauguration. Samuel Rezende believes it was “system-paid troublemakers” who were supposed to defame the pro-Bolsonaro movement.

Divided country, tight coffers

Even though Lula swore to the unity of all Brazilians right after his election victory at the end of October, the country he will rule in the future remains deeply divided. Bolsonaro will not hand over the presidential sash to Lula on Sunday. He has already left the country for Florida. Since Lula’s victory, Bolsonaro has avoided the public and has not left the palace for weeks. He has also not acknowledged Lula’s victory so far.

It will be difficult for Lula, says political scientist Mauricio Santoro from the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro. Unlike when he first took office in 2003, Lula can now count on neither a boom in commodity exports nor a booming Chinese economy. “Today we have a polarized country with an extreme right that is well organized both on the streets and online. And we live in a world that is still suffering from the consequences of the pandemic, plus the war in Ukraine and its Impact on inflation, food prices and oil.”

High hopes from all sides

The challenges are complex: The international community hopes that Lula will stop deforestation in the Amazon and take a leadership role in the fight against climate change – the people of the country are demanding quick solutions from Lula in the face of increased poverty, hunger and inequality. Lula inherits a struggling household and has to govern with a congress in which right-wing and conservative forces have a majority.

Lula will have to make concessions and forge alliances. He has already negotiated with Congress to suspend the debt brake in order to fulfill his campaign promises of increased social programs. The financial markets reacted nervously to Lula’s new donation pants, and prices fell.

Cabinet to please allies

Even setting up his cabinet was like a complicated jigsaw puzzle, and Lula founded 16 new ministries. “We’re trying to form a government that represents as much as possible the political forces that campaigned with us,” Lula said. Important posts such as the Ministry of Economic Affairs or the Ministry of Social Affairs went to close allies.

The appointment of Anielle Franco, the sister of Rio de Janeiro city councilor Marielle Franco, who was killed by paramilitaries in 2018, caused jubilation in the progressive camp. She becomes Minister for Equality between Ethnic Groups and for the first time there is a Ministry for Indigenous Peoples. Lula’s vice president, conservative Geraldo Alckmin, will take over the industry and trade portfolio.

fight against time

Lula is someone who can forge alliances and face adversity, says supporter Ulysses Peixoto. He’s worried about something else: “Lula’s biggest problem will be time.” People wanted to see rapid change. “But the Bolsonaro government has destroyed so much – in social policy, education, health care, in the Amazon. It will take years to rebuild, it won’t happen quickly.”

Then the caravan starts moving. He also has concerns that there could be conflicts with Bolsonaro supporters when he takes office – but you shouldn’t let that intimidate you, explains Ulysses. However, the security precautions before taking office have now been increased again.