In the recent Austrian elections, the traditional “grand coalition” between the conservative ÖVP and the social-democratic SPÖ is facing changes, as both parties unexpectedly secured a parliamentary majority but ranked second and third, respectively. With all parties dismissing a coalition with the victorious FPÖ, a tripartite government is likely, a first for Austria, though it may complicate governance. The liberal Neos party aims to join this coalition, advocating for significant reforms amidst past electoral setbacks at regional levels.
The term “grand coalition,” which has been commonly used in Austria, is no longer applied in its previous form. In the election held at the end of September, the Conservatives (ÖVP) and the Social Democrats (SPÖ) surprisingly secured a majority of mandates again. However, for the first time, they did not occupy the top two positions but instead ranked as the second and third strongest parties.
Since all parties have ruled out a coalition with the election winner FPÖ, it seems that, after a six-year hiatus, a revival of the coalition that once was the standard government configuration may occur. However, the combined seats of the ÖVP and SPÖ would only yield a single-seat majority. Karl Nehammer, the ÖVP leader tasked with forming a new coalition, emphasized that a stable government will require a third partner.
The election result is a subtle disappointment despite gains
The election result is a subtle disappointment despite gains
A tripartite coalition would be a first for Austria at the federal level, complicating both the ongoing exploratory talks and future cooperation. More parties typically lead to increased conflict potential, as seen with the “traffic light” coalition in Germany. However, the previous grand coalition from 2007 to 2017 was characterized by disputes and mutual blockades. A three-party arrangement, in contrast, feels fresh and aligns more closely with the mandate reflected in the election results: “No more business as usual.”
This coalition could involve one of the two smaller parties represented in Parliament, the liberal Neos or the Greens. Nehammer has already had initial discussions with both parties. However, Neos appears to have a distinct advantage: the Greens have significantly challenged the ÖVP over the past five years, particularly after their Environment Minister voted for the EU Restoration Law against the wishes of their coalition partners, leading to a strained relationship. Furthermore, the SPÖ is currently collaborating more amicably with the liberal Neos in Vienna than they did for ten years with the Greens.
It is clear that Neos is eager to join the government. The party has consistently positioned itself as the only genuine reform force and has candidly addressed uncomfortable truths, such as the urgent need for significant budget cuts and the potential necessity of raising the retirement age in the mid-term. Party leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger received considerable praise for her spirited campaign, which conveyed a desire for change.
Given this context, securing a little over nine percent of the votes was a mild disappointment, especially as both the ÖVP and Greens experienced substantial losses—parties with which the liberals share significant voter dynamics. On the positive side, Neos was one of the few parliamentary parties, alongside the FPÖ, to gain seats, continuing their trend of growth in every National Council election since their founding twelve years ago. They have surpassed their predecessor party, the Liberal Forum, which only entered Parliament twice during the 1990s.
Liberal ideas face challenges in Austria, and Neos does not seek broad popularity. The party focuses on economic and educational policies, advocating for a departure from longstanding dogmas. They call for increased school autonomy, a debt brake, and a re-evaluation of neutrality—ideas that, in the Austrian context, are almost revolutionary.
Neos appeals to well-educated urban dwellers, young people, and entrepreneurs. The party, however, aims to present itself as less elitist than its German counterpart, the FDP. Moreover, it boasts members who possess substantial expertise and experience outside of politics.
Setbacks in states and municipalities
Setbacks in states and municipalities
Recently, Neos faced significant setbacks at the state and municipal levels. They failed to secure representation in the state parliaments of rural Burgenland and Carinthia, and their performance in urban centers like Salzburg and Innsbruck this year was poor. The most significant debacle occurred in Salzburg’s state election a year and a half ago, where Neos was not only excluded from the state government but also lost its parliamentary presence.
This situation highlights the risks associated with participating in federal governance. On one hand, the party aims to demonstrate its reform capabilities to a broader audience. On the other, they may find themselves as junior partners in a coalition with two parties that are more resistant to fundamental change, and that do not necessarily need Neos for a majority. Whether they can still make an impact remains uncertain.
It is clear, however, that negotiations will be lengthy, and Neos must present a substantial achievement to its base. Nothing would harm the liberals more than facilitating the traditional black-red majority merely for the sake of power. Meanwhile, discussions are already underway to find a name for this potential