As he did for the draw for the Champions League, Julien Guyon calculated in real time the probabilities of the draw for the Europa League play-offs, which will pit the third in groups in C1 against the second in C3. The professor of applied mathematics at the École des Ponts ParisTech estimates the possibility that Lens will face Sporting is almost one in four (24.33%), with the possibility that the opponent being Roma being one in five (20 .82%). The two a priori strongest opponents on paper are therefore those who, according to the probabilities, have the greatest chance of falling for Racing.
For Marseille, Rennes and Toulouse, who can meet seven of the eight lost from the Champions League, the vagueness remains. With 15.65% for Braga and Benfica, 15.25% for AC Milan and 13.36% for the other clubs, mini-trends emerge. Which, in the case of Toulouse, would pose an embarrassing question if the balls designated the Milanese…
“ Lens only has five possible opponents and Sporting has six, which explains why this is the highest probabilityexplains Julien Guyon. This year, and contrary to usual, the probabilities are more uniform in the Champions League, where the qualified Spanish clubs all finished first and the Italians all finished in second position for example, than in the Europa League, while ‘there was no group constraint for these roadblocks. »