Prime Minister Michel Barnier expedited a key aspect of the 2025 budget bill after the National Rally (RN) refused a last-minute proposal for support. Facing a potential motion of censure, Barnier’s government grapples with concerns over France’s 6% budget deficit. RN leader Marine Le Pen aims for early elections while contending with legal challenges. Political analysts suggest her strategy may lead to significant repercussions, including possible government reshuffling or resignation of President Macron.
A Decision That Could Have Lasting Consequences
This pivotal choice might come back to trouble her.
On Monday, Prime Minister Michel Barnier opted to expedite a vital component of the 2025 budget bill through Parliament, following the National Rally (RN) led by Ms. Le Pen’s refusal of a last-minute proposal intended to secure their backing.
Mr. Barnier’s minority government is likely to face a motion of censure on Wednesday, a situation fueled by a coalition of the far-right and left-wing parties.
The RN’s decision to strike has highlighted the influence of a party once considered fringe, which has now become a dominant force in Parliament after the recent snap elections.
However, this strategy poses significant risks during a complicated period both domestically and geopolitically for a party that aspires to be viewed as a reliable alternative government.
Even if Ms. Le Pen’s strategy accelerates the RN’s rise to power, she will inherit the same financial challenges that caused embarrassment for Mr. Barnier, as investors grow increasingly concerned about France’s 6% budget deficit.
‘The RN is making a mistake by attempting to topple the government, as they will be held accountable,’ Eric Woerth, a former minister and legislator from Mr. Macron’s party, told Reuters. ‘They will be responsible for this decision, and no one else (…). The RN has proven it is not ready to govern.’
Centrist legislator Paul Molac commented to Reuters that the RN might find itself vulnerable to Mr. Barnier’s accusations of trying to ‘add chaos to chaos,’ complicating their efforts to gain the support of moderate conservatives necessary for an Élysée victory.
‘Marine Le Pen wants to be president while creating disorder?’ questioned Yannick Neuder, a center-right legislator.
The RN cannot overthrow the government independently and will need to collaborate with the left, a group it has frequently labeled a significant threat to France. This alliance could further undermine its standing with moderate conservatives.
Aware of the potential pitfalls, Ms. Le Pen took to X on Tuesday, claiming that those alleging ‘collusion between the National Rally and (the far-left) La France insoumise’ are spreading ‘disinformation.’ She has already dismissed claims that the RN promotes ‘chaos,’ branding them as ‘fake news.’
Could Early Elections Be on the Horizon?
On Monday, Ms. Le Pen asserted that Mr. Barnier should have made greater efforts to address the RN’s concerns, considering their strong electoral performance.
She noted that the Constitution outlines three potential solutions to the current crisis. With two options—reshuffling or dissolving Parliament—off the table, the only remaining choice is the resignation of Mr. Macron.
‘It is ultimately up to the president of the Republic to decide,’ she stated.
RN spokesperson Philippe Ballard echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Mr. Macron’s resignation ‘could serve as a resolution’ to the crisis.
Historian Patrick Weil, who specializes in far-right politics, observed that while Ms. Le Pen’s choice is fraught with risk, her intentions are evident.
‘She is aiming for early elections,’ he predicted, suggesting that Ms. Le Pen would reject any prime ministers proposed by Mr. Macron, effectively forcing his resignation. ‘It would be checkmate. If all the governments he appoints are turned down, what options does he have?’
Thomas Ménagé, an RN legislator, told Reuters that any future government that fails to consider the party’s budgetary stipulations ‘would soon face a motion of censure.’
While analysts believe Mr. Macron’s resignation is improbable, it isn’t entirely out of the question. Should he resign, the Senate president would serve as an interim leader until a new presidential election can be arranged.
As part of budget discussions, the RN put forward demands including the elimination of the electricity tax hike, inflation-adjusted pension increases, the removal of cuts to drug reimbursements, a freeze on gas tax hikes, and a reduction in France’s contributions to the European Union.
Ms. Le Pen’s political future may also shape her decisions. She is currently facing trial for misappropriating European funds, with a verdict expected on March 31. Prosecutors have recommended a mandatory five-year ban from holding public office, which would inhibit her ability to run in the 2027 presidential race.
Ms. Le Pen has denied these allegations and contends that her legal issues impact her strategy. Nonetheless, her critiques of Mr. Barnier’s budget have intensified following the prosecutors’ request, and allies of Mr. Barnier believe that her trial has influenced her stance.
Ultimately, her aspirations for the Élysée may hinge on the prospect of early elections.
She is not alone in her anticipation of a vote before 2027: Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe declared his candidacy for ‘the next presidential election’ in September, with allies suggesting he does not dismiss the possibility of an early presidential election as soon as 2025.
Mr. Macron, who can only be ousted by a two-thirds majority in both chambers, has already dismissed the idea of an early resignation.
‘However, as history has shown, Macron can surprise and change his previous positions,’ noted EuroIntelligence in a recent report.
This ongoing crisis is unlikely to instill confidence in investors, who have pushed France’s borrowing costs above those of Greece this week.
‘The RN claims, ‘I don’t have the solution to fix the deficit, that’s the government’s job,” remarked Mr. Woerth, the Macronist legislator. ‘It’s an incomprehensible and reckless stance.’