Key Issues and Poll Insights: What Matters One Month Before the Election

Germany is preparing for its federal election in 2025, with 41 parties eligible to compete and around 59.2 million voters expected to participate. Key issues include the economy, immigration, and housing. Recent events, like a violent incident in Aschaffenburg, may impact campaign dynamics. Polls show the CDU/CSU leading, while smaller parties vie for representation. Despite ongoing discussions, the campaign has remained largely free from scandals as parties finalize their strategies ahead of the election.

Germany’s Federal Election 2025: What’s Happening?

As Germany gears up for the winter election campaign, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation. With just one month left until the federal election, citizens are starting to receive their election notifications. What stances are the parties taking, and which issues are capturing public attention? Might the recent violent incident in Aschaffenburg influence the campaign dynamics?

Participating Parties: Who’s In the Running?

The Federal Election Committee has authorized a total of 41 parties to contest in the upcoming election. However, many of these parties must still navigate an additional challenge to secure their participation: parties not currently represented in the Bundestag or state parliaments with at least five representatives are required to submit candidate lists accompanied by a specific number of supporting signatures. In 2021, not all parties met this requirement; out of the initial 53, only 47 managed to qualify.

After two days of meetings, the Federal Election Committee has confirmed that 41 parties are eligible to compete in the election.

When Will Election Notifications Arrive?

The Federal Statistical Office estimates that approximately 59.2 million Germans will be eligible to vote. These individuals can expect to receive their election notifications shortly, which will inform them where they can vote in person or how to apply for postal voting. The exact timing of these notifications will vary by municipality, but all notifications must be received by February 2 at the latest. If not, voters should follow up to ensure they can participate.

This federal election allows a broader scope of groups to cast their votes compared to previous years.

Key Considerations for Postal Voting

Due to shortened timelines for early voting, it is anticipated that postal voting will only be available for about two weeks. Ballots can only be printed and dispatched after January 30 due to candidate admission deadlines.

All election letters must reach the designated office by the voting deadline of February 23 at 6:00 PM. The German Post has guaranteed that any election letters mailed or submitted at a post office by February 20, 2025, prior to the last collection, will arrive on time. For those who want to ensure their vote counts, submitting the election letter directly at the address indicated on the envelope is advisable.

How does the postal voting process work? How are the votes counted? We’ll answer these vital questions.

Current Polling Trends for the Parties

At the forefront of the latest DeutschlandTrend poll is the Union of CDU and CSU, commanding 31 percent of voter support. Following closely is the AfD with 20 percent. The ruling SPD is slightly ahead of the Greens, capturing 15 percent compared to their 14 percent. Meanwhile, the parties facing uncertainty at the five percent threshold include the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), the FDP, and the Left Party, with no other parties exceeding three percent in polling.

Can Smaller Parties Enter the Bundestag?

Yes, smaller parties can gain entry into the Bundestag through the basic mandate clause. If a party secures at least three constituencies, they can be represented in the Bundestag even if their overall vote tally falls below five percent.

In 2021, the Left Party capitalized on this opportunity, achieving 4.9 percent overall but entering the Bundestag with 39 representatives after winning three direct mandates in Berlin and Leipzig. They are making another attempt this election, spearheaded by notable figures such as Gregor Gysi and Bodo Ramelow.

The FDP is also hovering near the five percent mark, with three constituency victories seeming unlikely. Christian Lindner’s party is positioning itself as a coalition partner for the Union, likely hoping to garner second votes from their supporters to surpass the five percent threshold.

The Free Voters, led by Hubert Aiwanger, aim to make their debut in the Bundestag but currently sit just below three percent in the polls. They are focusing on strong constituency candidates in Bavaria to increase their chances of entering parliament.

Stay informed about the federal election – from representatives to the second vote.

Crucial Issues in the Election Campaign

The economy is the dominant theme in this election cycle, with parties presenting their strategies to combat economic challenges. Tax relief is a key promise across the board. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD emphasizes ‘good wages’ and social security, while Union chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz advocates for economic stimulation and significant tax reductions. The FDP, under Christian Lindner, also prioritizes economic issues, while the Greens, led by Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, focus on environmentally friendly solutions that are socially inclusive.

The IW has conducted analyses for ARD, including an assessment of the potential costs of the AfD’s proposals.

The AfD, led by Alice Weidel, seeks to reinstate gas imports from Russia and revive nuclear energy. The Left Party, represented by Jan van Aken and Heidi Reichinnek, is campaigning on issues related to lowering rents and living expenses, while BSW chancellor candidate Sahra Wagenknecht calls for an end to arms aid for Ukraine.

Asylum and immigration are also hot topics this election. The recent knife attack in Aschaffenburg, which resulted in two fatalities, has intensified the call for political action. The suspect, an Afghan national with a deportation order and reported psychological issues, has reignited discussions around migration and security—topics that are likely to gain further prominence as the election date approaches.

Most parties represented in the Bundestag, except for the Left Party, are advocating for stricter immigration policies, albeit with varying emphases and tones.

Parties are rapidly unveiling their campaign agendas. What specific focuses are they adopting as they enter the electoral fray?

While foreign policy has taken a backseat, particularly amid ongoing disputes over Ukraine aid among former coalition partners, this could shift depending on developments from U.S. President Donald Trump in the upcoming weeks.

Many Germans have pressing concerns beyond politics. Affordable housing remains a significant issue, with the SPD-led Ministry of Construction promising much but delivering little. However, this topic has yet to gain traction in the current election discourse.

Economic matters are at the forefront of the campaign, but citizens are grappling with various other pressing issues.

Are There Any Scandals Affecting the Election Campaign?

So far, the election campaign has remained largely free from major scandals. Chancellor Scholz and other parties have managed to maintain a relatively scandal-free environment as they head towards the election.

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