Junta in Myanmar: The fatal error of the military

Two years after the military coup, the situation in Myanmar is more tense than ever. The junta is waging a ruthless fight against the opposition and has lost control of large parts of the country.

The streets are empty, the shops are closed: Opponents of the military junta have been silently protesting in Myanmar. Two years ago, the military overthrew the civilian government of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and took power. Shortly before, Suu Kyi had been re-elected with an overwhelming majority. The junta justified its coup with electoral fraud.

In the days after the coup, hundreds of thousands took to the streets against the military. They banged on pots and pans and called for the democratically elected government to return. The people in the country had just experienced almost ten years of opening, reforms and democracy.

26-year-old Su Myat Noe also took to the streets peacefully at the time. She had to watch as three friends were shot dead by soldiers. “The military had guns. We had nothing. We couldn’t defend ourselves. Only guns can fight guns,” the young woman tells the ARD studio Singapore.

At gunpoint against the junta

Su Myat Noe sits on the border river between Myanmar and Thailand. Before the coup, she was a fashion designer in Yangon. Now she is part of the People’s Defense Force, the people’s defense forces that fight against the military by force of arms.

In the border area with Thailand, which is controlled by the Karen ethnic minority, she is undergoing weapon training like thousands of other townspeople. The ethnic minorities in Myanmar have been fighting for their independence for decades. Since the coup, they have had a common enemy: the military junta.

What the military underestimated

The Burmese political scientist Moe Thuzar says the military underestimated the resilience and will of the population. She works at the Yusof Ishak Research Institute in Singapore. To date, the military has not taken control of the country.

Instead, it shares power with a shadow government that was formed about two months after the coup. Their spokesman U Kyaw Zaw explains in an interview: “Together with the armed forces of the ethnic minorities, we control more than 50 percent of the national territory of Myanmar. We run schools, hospitals and are in the process of setting up courts and a police force.”

sanctions with little effect

The opposition would like more support from the international community in their fight against the generals. Although there have been economic sanctions by the EU and the US against the military leadership, they have so far had little effect. To mark the anniversary, the US, UK, Canada and Australia imposed new sanctions and travel bans on members of the military government.

In December, the UN Security Council passed a resolution on Myanmar for the first time, calling for an end to the violence and the release of the ousted Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi, who has since been sentenced to 33 years in prison. But there is still no global arms embargo.

Myanmar gets most of its weapons from its ally Russia, including fighter jets and helicopters. Soldiers use it to bomb entire villages, particularly often in the border region with Thailand, where the soldiers suspect there are many rebels. It’s an unequal fight. The People’s Defense Forces build some of their weapons themselves.

A brutal fight

According to the prisoner aid organization AAPP, more than 2,900 people have been killed by the military to date – at demonstrations, in prison, in their homes. The soldiers sometimes burn down entire villages. Almost 40,000 homes, clinics and schools were destroyed, including Buddhist temples or churches where people sought shelter.

More than 17,000 people were arrested. Almost 14,000 are still in prison today. Several large mass releases were primarily intended to convey a positive image to the outside world. Many of those released were not political prisoners, were nearing the end of their prison terms or were re-arrested shortly thereafter.

Strong ASEAN criticism

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN for short, has been surprisingly clear by its standards on the situation in Myanmar. The conflict is causing instability for the entire region, and due to large numbers of refugees, some neighboring countries are directly affected by Myanmar’s civil war.

According to Amnesty International, 70,000 people have fled the country and more than 1.5 million people are fleeing their own country. Apart from ASEAN’s demand that the military junta finally implement a jointly agreed five-point plan, little has happened. The new ASEAN chairmanship Indonesia is focusing on dialogue with the member country and intends to send a high-ranking general to Myanmar shortly for talks.

Will the elections be postponed again?

The political, economic and humanitarian situation in the country is at a low point on the second anniversary of the coup. State media report that the state of emergency in Myanmar will be extended by another six months. A violation of the constitution, which actually prohibits such an extension.

This will probably also postpone the elections announced for August. General Min Aung Hlaing had announced in 2021: “We must create the conditions for free and fair elections with several parties. I undertake to hold the elections in any case.” However, he had also stated that the country had to be peaceful and stable for this to happen. A state that Myanmar is currently far from.

The USA had already spoken of sham elections at the time. UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews said free and fair elections are impossible if the opposition is arrested, tortured and executed.

Last year, the military junta carried out death sentences and executed four democracy activists for the first time in decades. The military justify their claim to power by saying that only they are able to ensure stability and hold the country together. Since the founding of the state, the military has always played an important role in Myanmar.

A tailor-made law

A few days ago, the military junta published a new party law. Among other things, it sets rules for the number of members, the number of offices and the financial resources of the parties. Anyone who is connected to terrorist organizations, and the parallel government, the NUG, is also considered to be this is excluded from the upcoming elections.

Only one party seems to meet the criteria of the 20-page set of rules, and that party is close to the military. The UN special envoy for Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, therefore warned that the elections would fuel violence, prolong the conflict and make the return to democracy and stability even more difficult.

“I fight for my child”

26-year-old Su Myat Noe is certain: she wants to keep fighting until they defeat the military. A few months ago she gave birth to a child. Her father is her instructor, a fighter from the Karen ethnic minority. “My life is completely different than I imagined. But that doesn’t matter. I’m fighting for my child, for a better future for our next generation.”

Her wish, along with other resistance fighters and democracy activists, is a federal, democratic state that unites all minorities and ethnic groups for the first time in Myanmar’s history.