Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that the phase of intensive fighting in the war in the Gaza Strip could soon end. However, the head of government combined this with an announcement that not only caused a stir in Washington. If the presence of the armed forces in the Gaza Strip is reduced, then “we can move troops north,” he said – to the border with Lebanon.
There, Israel and the Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah have been engaged in an increasingly fierce military exchange for months, which could quickly escalate into a regional war. “The risk of an unintended escalation and an all-out war is growing day by day,” warned Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday in Jerusalem before traveling on to Beirut to speak with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib.
In Washington, the government sent Chief of Staff Charles Brown with a warning. The USA would not be able to help Israel defend itself in the same way as it did when Iran attacked directly in April with rockets, cruise missiles and drones, he said. It also cannot be ruled out that Iran would enter a war if the Islamic Republic saw the existence of Hezbollah, which was built up by the Revolutionary Guards in the Bekaa Valley in the early 1980s, threatened – and with it Tehran’s political influence in Lebanon, its dominant military power position in the country and the entire “axis of resistance” directed against Israel, which also includes Syria and Shiite militias in Iraq.
Hezbollah had already attacked Israel in the north the day after the terrorist attack by Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Its elite troops, the Radwan Unit, systematically destroyed border security facilities. The border, known as the Blue Line, is monitored by the UN mission UNIFIL; Germany leads its naval component and provides a frigate. Over the months, the intensity of the attacks has increased, and Israel has responded with artillery fire on southern Lebanon, but also with air strikes on Hezbollah cadres in other parts of the country. 28 Israelis have been killed so far, 17 soldiers and eleven civilians. On the Lebanese side, there are said to be around 500 fatalities, most of them fighters from Hezbollah or other militant groups, but also 80 civilians.
Meanwhile, the militia is systematically destroying residential buildings and infrastructure in villages on the Israeli side with anti-tank weapons and rockets; residents are still not allowed to return to a strip eight kilometers wide. At least 60,000 Israelis who lived there are housed in hotels and accommodations in other parts of the country. Domestically, pressure is mounting on Netanyahu to allow them to return. This is also the reason he used to justify the deployment of troops to the north. This is a defensive measure. Netanyahu said he preferred a diplomatic solution, but there were other options. The Israeli armed forces have in any case completed their operational planning. In Lebanon, more than 100,000 people have been expelled from the border area.
In Israel, many believe a new armed conflict is inevitable
According to UN Resolution 1701, which the Security Council passed to end the Lebanon War in 2006, only UN peacekeepers and soldiers of the Lebanese armed forces are allowed to be south of the Litani River. However, Hezbollah actually controls the border area and has stationed a large number of its at least 50,000 fighters there, many of whom have combat experience in Syria. It has also hidden tens of thousands of short- and medium-range missiles, often in supposedly civilian buildings. Neither the government army nor the UN troops are preventing them from doing so. Israel is now demanding that the resolution be complied with. Western mediators are also urging this.
The US sent its special envoy Amos Hochstein to Beirut last week. French diplomats said Hezbollah was making a ceasefire conditional on Israel ending its military operation in the Gaza Strip – a condition that Israel and most Western states reject. France nevertheless urged Israel to agree to a ceasefire, which Israel’s Defense Minister Joav Gallant denounced as a “hostile policy.”
In Israel, fuelled by the government, the mood is spreading that a war in the north is inevitable – even if it would bring far greater devastation and the outcome is uncertain. According to Western intelligence services, Hezbollah can overwhelm Israel’s defence systems with its arsenal of an estimated 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and reach any point in the country. In the 2006 war, Israel bombed the Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut and tried to destroy positions and weapons depots in southern Lebanon. However, the armed forces did not win a clear victory against Hezbollah. The chances are hardly better this time, as Hezbollah has had almost nine months to prepare for an armed conflict.