Is the deconfinement that starts on Monday too optimistic?

End of distance restrictions on Monday, reopening of terraces, cultural venues and non-essential shops on May 19, opening of restaurants and sports halls on June 9, total lifting of the curfew on June 30. Faced with such a calendar of deconfinement, Léa, a Parisian business student, is torn: “I both look forward to finally sharing beers at the bar with my friends and at the same time I am very worried about the Covid figures. “. If it improves, the health situation is far from being in good shape: more than 5,500 patients in intensive care this Saturday, 28,600 people hospitalized, nearly 300 deaths per day on average over the past week, and an incidence certainly falling. free but still has 268 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in France.

Léa is not the only one to know this sentimental dilemma. Julie, a Parisian barmaid, has one eye on Euro football 2021, starting on June 11, another on the incidence in Paris – for the moment at 384, while the reopening of the interior of the bars will not be possible that in departments with an incidence of less than 400: “The Euro is the period when people consume the most. As a bar, you can’t miss it. I’m relieved to tell myself that normally it will. But it is this “normally” that worries me ”.

In May, do what you want outside

Are all these concerns justified? For epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, the first two stages of deconfinement – May 3 and 19 – should take place without too much trouble. He does not express concern: “The measures concern almost exclusively the exterior, where we know that the contaminations are much less. “According to a study by the Institut Pasteur, only 5% of contaminations are made outside. On the contrary, this reduction could even have beneficial effects, he believes: “Reopen the terraces and push back the curfew (it will be at 9 pm from May 19), this could strongly encourage people to see each other outside. instead of ending up clandestinely in apartments, where the risk of contamination is much higher. “

Julie confirms this: “Many young people tell us that they are eager to return to our bar and that the evenings at some or the other are less good”, admitting half-heartedly to defrauding the curfew. As for the rare closed places reopened, these are places where the mask will theoretically never be removed. Above all, Pascal Crépey reminds us: it will not be a question of a total relaxation of measures – restaurant and bars closed indoors, curfew at 9 p.m., gauges in all open places, sports halls and nightclubs closed …

What health situation for June?

The real concern is more about the June 9 stage. Léa testifies: “We are all afraid with my friends that the terraces will reopen on May 19 and close in June. “For Pascal Crépey, it is impossible to know where the French health situation will be more than a month apart. But this will have an interest in being good to allow such a lifting of the measure: “There is the opening of closed places without masks, such as restaurants and bars, and unlike May, there are hardly any more. brakes, ”he fears.

A reopening doomed to failure? The Institut Pasteur warns of the risks of an epidemic resumption in July. But this is only one model among others. Pascal Crépey does not necessarily want to be so pessimistic: “This calendar is worrying if the population relaxes completely. We must prevent that at the beginning, any reduction will in return require greater attention and caution in our risky behavior. “No problem assures Lea:” We are so afraid of yet another confinement that everyone will be careful. And then, there are 300 deaths per day, that does not invite total recklessness … “

The vaccination effect

Two other hopes remain. First, the summer season, less conducive to the virus – school holidays that arrive in July and August, holidays, people more easily outside, etc. However, summer has its limits, as the United States has shown, undergoing a terrible wave during the summer of 2020.

Second, the vaccination. If this will be insufficient to guarantee collective immunity in June, the number of people vaccinated will necessarily have an impact on the epidemic … as is already the case. At the height of the first wave, the first week of April 2020, he would die on average 1,000 people per day. At the height of the third, 350. However, the vaccination only accelerates, it should increase its effects even more. “It will not be enough to relax,” recalls Pascal Crépey. But it can make the rest of our efforts easier and achievable. “What to hope to be able to indeed drink glasses at the counter this summer.