No “post-corona boom”: BDI with “cautious confidence”
The industry association is expecting an upswing and sees full order books. But Corona and delivery problems could again ensure a “stop-and-go year”.
From the industry’s point of view, the economic upturn in Germany is not really gaining momentum. Industry President Siegfried Russwurm said on Thursday in Berlin that the order books were full. However, production is not keeping pace with demand.
Pandemic restrictions and supply bottlenecks affected large parts of the economy. The economy is threatened with another “stop-and-go year”. Many companies in the automotive, electrical and mechanical engineering industries suffer from delivery bottlenecks, as it was said. These slowed down industrial value creation by more than 50 billion euros each in 2021 and 2022. Missing microchips, components and raw materials would affect production for a long time.
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) is looking at the economic recovery with “cautious confidence”. The BDI expects economic growth this year of 3.5 percent, after 2.5 percent last year. According to the forecast, German exports will increase by four percent, which is just half as much as last year.
The BDI continues to expect a production increase in industry of four and a half percent. Then the overall production level in 2022 would still be around six percent below the 2018 level – also because industrial production had already declined in 2019 and thus before Corona.
But an annual outlook has seldom been fraught with so much uncertainty. Russwurm said the pandemic was still the dominant issue. The hoped-for “post-corona boom” will not materialize. Recovery will be delayed until summer, but this is a rather optimistic scenario.
The industry called on politicians to act. High energy costs, slow digital change, a lack of infrastructure investments and high taxes made the location less and less attractive for companies from Germany and abroad.