The excise on electricity will increase on February 1, but the government promises that the overall bill will drop by 9% for customers at the regulated rate.
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The time for a price shield on energy is soon over. As part of the presentation of its finance bill on Thursday October 10, the government proposed an increase in a tax on electricity which will take place from February 1. Despite this increase in taxation, the executive assures that the bill will drop by 9% for customers at the regulated electricity rate. How can we explain this a priori contradictory announcement?
To understand this, we must look at the excise on electricity, also called g, which the government intends to increase. In February 2022, to cushion the consequences of the surge in energy prices for households, this was considerably reduced, to 1 euro per megawatt hour (MWh). In a context of falling inflation and exit from the tariff shield, it was increased to 21 euros per MWh in February. The previous government intended to bring it back to its pre-energy crisis level by February 1, 2025, i.e. 32.44 euros/MWh.
Faced with the country’s public deficit, Michel Barnier’s government team intends to go further. The tax will be charged to “a range around 50 euros per MWh”announced the Ministry of the Economy. Its exact amount, which does not appear in the finance bill for 2025, will be established by decree in February. The measure should make it possible to generate 3 billion euros in additional revenue next year.
To justify this decision, the government points to the decline in electricity prices on the markets. If the current cost of MWh has not returned to its pre-crisis level (40-50 euros), its price oscillated in September between 60 and 70 euros, far from the peaks reached during the energy crisis. In August 2022, the amount per MWh had reached a record of 1,000 euros. “If we had very high prices, it was because the electricity system was derailed, hydraulic stocks were low and we experienced a gas crisis. As the electricity crisis is over, this has repercussions on prices “summarized Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert for the Colombus Consulting firm, in mid-September to franceinfo.
In this context of falling prices, the Ministry of the Economy ensures that, despite the increase in excise duty on electricity, the 22.4 million households and businesses who have subscribed to the regulated sales tariff (TRV ) will observe a “9% drop” of their bill. This decline must also concern customers who have an offer indexed to the regulated tariff. In total, the government estimates that “80% of French people” will see their bill decrease on average by“a hundred euros” per year. He specifies that the tax rate will be set in February for “ensure” this decline.
However, it will be less than what households at the regulated rate could have hoped for. In June, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, mentioned a drop of 10 to 15% on February 1. For its part, the Energy Regulatory Commission anticipated, in its deliberation delivered in Septembera decrease in“at least 10%” of the invoice, based on the scenario of a return of the excise on electricity limited to 32.44 euros per MWh.
On the other hand, the bill promises to be steeper for the remaining 20% of French people who are not subject to the regulated rate. This is the case for contracts whose prices vary regularly depending on changes in electricity prices, or for customers who have opted for a fixed price offer. For the latter, in most cases, only the price per kWh is truly fixed (for one or two years, for example). But the cost invoiced for the subscription and taxes can always change during the contract, underlines the Energy Mediator. Suppliers will therefore be able to pass on all or part of the increase in electricity tax to their customers’ bills.
For consumers who are not subject to the regulated tariffthe decline in electricity prices could have resulted in a reduction in the bill in recent months, the Minister of Ecological Transition and Energy explained on Friday. But “we must be careful that the drop in their bill in 2024 does not then result in a rebound in 2025 which would be unpleasant”admitted Friday Agnès Pannier-Runacher on Europe 1. The minister assures that she will be there “very vigilant in the discussion with parliamentarians”.
Furthermore, these customers can switch to a regulated rate offer at any time if they wish. Even if you subscribe to a fixed offer, guaranteeing a price over one year, for example, it is possible to terminate the contract before its end. To change your offer, the only necessary step is to take out a new contract, explains the Energy Mediator. The new supplier is then responsible for notifying the previous one.