In two months of revolt, “a revolution is underway”

Two months that “Women, life, freedom” is hammered in the streets of Iran. On September 14, 2022, the first demonstrations took place in response to the arrest and then the death of Mahsa Amini, arrested by the morality police for some hair sticking out of her veil. Every day since this tragedy, young Iranians have taken to the streets, opposed the authorities, in universities, burned their veils or cut their hair.

For two months, Iranian youth have been defying the authoritarian Islamic regime in place and demanding their freedom in the face of brutal police repression. She screams to live like young people in the West, free to dance, to sing, to wear the clothes she wants. She demands justice for the dead, imprisoned or disappeared demonstrators. She dares to ask for the head of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. These demands alone have a scent of novelty in the country which, a priori, will never be able to be completely as before this wind of revolt.

A “historic” point of no return

Because what is happening there is “historic” agree to comment several specialists of the region. “A revolution is underway,” says Mariam Pirzadeh, Iran specialist for France 24, contacted by 20 minutes. And already since the beginning of the demonstrations, the population has crossed a point of no return ”. “This challenge has, in two months, won all the provinces, the demonstrators want to go all the way, they want to hold on for the long term because today the determination, the anger and the hope animate the Iranians”, adds -she.

“The wall of fear has fallen,” continues Armin Arefi, a senior journalist at the Pointspecializing in the Middle East and author ofA spring in Tehran (Plon), joined by 20 minutes. Despite the hundreds of people killed by the regime’s violent repression, 326 according to the NGO Iran Human Rights, but also the more than 2,000 people charged and the 15,000 arrests, not a day goes by without an act of protest from the people. Whether it’s a demonstration, an act of civil disobedience, a symbolic act, protesters show their determination in many ways. In the universities, the walls of the canteens separating canteens reserved for women and for men are destroyed, the students, high school or college girls remove their veils, the young people have fun knocking the turban off the heads of the mullahs… are no longer afraid to express their wish to see the regime fall,” summarizes Armin Arefi.

And that’s already the big change. Even if repression succeeds one day in putting down the rebellion, if mass executions can succeed in silencing these slogans, “the seed is planted”, affirms to 20 minutes Noé Pignède, correspondent for Radio France in the Middle East. And if these demonstrations fail one day, at the slightest event the revolt could start again. “I don’t see how it could go back to how it was before. There was a shift with this generation, ready to risk their lives in the streets by chanting “death to the dictator” ”, he develops. Especially since there have already been so many deaths, that it is also for them that the demonstrators are holding out.

A deep desire for freedom

Basically, they stand for their freedom. “They want a normal life and say stop to perpetual bans”, explains Mariam Pirzadeh. And for that, they demand the fall of a regime of political Islam that corsets the acts and gestures of Iranians, and particularly Iranian women. Among the most educated societies in the Muslim world, according to Armin Arefi, the Iranian people are not anti-West or anti-American, unlike the tops of the state and “nerves have been on edge for years, so the tragedy of Mahsa Amini’s death resonated in the minds of many Iranian women, it served as a spark,” he says. Forty-three years have in fact passed since the Iranian revolution and the establishment of the Islamic regime, without any real reform having seen the light of day.

This is too much for this youth who aspire to their rights, who know freedom and democracy from afar. “We are in front of a youth who grew up with technology, tablets, smartphones and especially social networks. They see how the millions of Iranians who have gone abroad live abroad, especially in the West, and therefore all that is refused to them”, reminds 20 minutes Mahnaz Shirali, sociologist specializing in Iran and author of Window on Iran (The Peregrines). “These young people see what a modern world can offer them, they want the same thing, they have the right to a normal life”, insists Mariam Pirzadeh. And it is “one of the first countries in the Muslim world where the population rejects political Islam and Iran will become one of the first countries secularized by the base, by the people who demand a separation between politics and religion and who aspires to individual freedoms”, abounds Armin Arefi.

An uncertain outcome

But no sign of moderation on the part of the regime on the horizon, which prefers to discredit the dispute by denouncing a plot hatched by the Americans, rather than listening to its youth. Apart from repression, there was no reaction from high-ranking leaders. A polarization is taking place between the demonstrators and the top of the state. “We are witnessing a movement that continues, but we do not see the regime falling for the moment”, summarizes Armin Arefi. And faced with this silence broken only by the violence of the police, the rebels remain mostly peaceful.

Until when ? Can they one day take up arms? It is a scenario that is not taking shape at the moment, for several reasons and the first is that they do not have one. Moreover, “they know that it would play against them, believes Mahnaz Shirali, they do not want to give a pretext to the Islamist Republic, which could carry out a massacre by deploying the army”. And that could lead to a civil war, which is not the purpose of these protests. According to Noé Pignède, “they seem to be thinking more about the aftermath, about a political alternative to the regime, and about the scope of their actions “.

A revolution takes time. But an intervention of the armies in favor of the demonstrators, the regular army and the parallel army called the Guardians of the Revolution, could turn things upside down. It is “a hope that many people have”, according to Mariam Pirzadeh, but which still seems distant. Especially since the commander of the land forces of the army recently reaffirmed his support for the regime, saying he was ready to intervene in the face of the demonstrations and that his troops were awaiting the orders of the supreme guide. “But depending on the evolution of the revolt, that could change,” said Armin Arefi, remaining cautious all the same. No one can indeed foresee the continuation of the movement and what forms it could take. The only certain thing is that this youth has a determined appetite to change things and aspire to the acquisition of their rights and their freedom.


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